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Running of the Bull: How FOMC Can Spark a USD Rally

Running of the Bull: How FOMC Can Spark a USD Rally

2014-06-18 11:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Talking Points:

- US Dollar could be on the verge of a bull run.

- Look to FOMC's June economic projections for USD fuel.

- Trade FOMC today with Chief Strategist John Kicklighter at 17:45 GMT.

The running of the bulls is typically associated with an early-to-mid July religious festival in Pamplona, Spain, in which racers run down partitioned streets being chased by a dozen or so bulls. Feeling tired? Stopping isn't an option. The bulls stampede everything in their path.

So too may the US Dollar starting today, if the Federal Reserve inadvertently takes a hawkish tone, setting off the running of the bull a month early. There is little doubt that at her press conference today, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will adopt slightly optimistic rhetoric, insofar as it doesn't stray from her main theme that is 'interest rates will remain low for a long time.'

However, unlike the prior Fed meetings, this June iteration calls forward revisions to the Fed's economic projections as well, which are likely to be the most poignant source of optimism for the US Dollar today. Despite Q1 GDP slumping (and more revisions lower possible), Q2 data has been firm and several of the Fed's economic checkpoints have been met.

The video above (about 2x as long as usual) goes into detail parsing out what the FOMC might reveal today, and then ultimately, how this will translate into traders in the USD-complex. The video examines AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and USDJPY.

Read more: US Dollar Needs Optimism from Fed as Q2 Data Starts to Slip

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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