Technical Skies Darken for USD Ahead of NFPs as Key Reversals Seen
- Majors across the USD spectrum see Slow Stoch, MACD crosses.
- June forex seasonality calls for start of USD losing streak in June.
If the May US Nonfarm Payrolls report doesn't deliver, the US Dollar could be in trouble. Technical evidence across the US Dollar spectrum has cropped up over the past several days that the recent greenback bull run may be over, and a disappointing May labor market report could be the exact catalyst required to spur a turnaround.
Notably, the key reversals in EURUSD and USDCHF (essentially inverse pairs, trading at a -0.93 daily correlation since September 6, 2011, when the SNB implemented the Sf1.2000 EURCHF floor) have developed at levels we have previously identified as breakout thresholds.
In an unprecedented move - the Fed nor the BoJ have yet dared to do so - the ECB has dropped its deposit facility rate into negative territory. With inflation peristently low (but no apparent threat of deflation), the ECB is attempting to spur banks' lending habits by in essence charging a fee for keeping excess reserves parked at the ECB. Whether or not the measures have staying power with the Euro are an entirely different story: President Draghi indicated that rates were at the lower bound.
For all intents and purposes, Draghi carried a big stick, but did not necessarily pack the punch required to keep the Euro in a persistent subdued state. If the May NFP report disappoints (+215K expected from +288K; ADP Employment Change was +179K versus +210K expected), we wouldn't be surprised to see a greater rebound in EURUSD - in the near-term, the range to watch is from $1.3585 to 1.3670.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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