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USD/JPY Tests Yearly Low as BoJ Refrains - On Cusp of Major Yen Rally?

USD/JPY Tests Yearly Low as BoJ Refrains - On Cusp of Major Yen Rally?

2014-05-21 11:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDJPY faces the critical yearly low near 100.75.

- AUDJPY, EURJPY dive accelerate; GBPJPY resilient.

- The forex economic calendar lightens up in the North American session.

The most recent CFTC's Committment of Traders report showed that net-short Japanese Yen positioning increased to 65K contracts from 61K contracts, a curious development during what has been a respectable rally by the Yen in May. In context of the Bank of Japan's decision last night, evidence is building for a major Yen turn around.

In Japan, where food and energy prices are soaring and wage growth is stagnant, consumers are recently dealing with another shock to their purchasing power - the VAT hike in April. Accordingly, with the explosive Q1 GDP figure in their back pocket (+5.9% annualized), Japanese monetary officials have decided that the country is well on its way to achieving the +2% inflation target previously outlined.

To me, this is simple math: the market is skewed short JPY; and the BoJ is taking a stand against further easing. With the US economy sliding and the ECB looking down the path of its own expansive, non-standard easing measures, there may be further room for the USDJPY and EURJPY to run lower.

Read more: GBP/JPY Top Valid Below 171.25, Eyes 169.05; GBP/USD Struggles on CPI

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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