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Sea Change in Central Bank Policy Leaves EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Vulnerable

Sea Change in Central Bank Policy Leaves EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Vulnerable

2014-05-15 11:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EURJPY and GBPJPY exhibit greater signs of topping.

- USDJPY stuck in range 101.35-103.05.

- Forex economic calendar packed with US data on Thursday.

To keep up with developments central banks and their policy changes, be sure to sign up for my distribution list.

An interesting batch of growth data from the Euro-Zone and Japan puts the European majors at an interesting crossroads against the Japanese Yen, as a more tangible divide has started to grow between their respective central banks.

While the UK economy is far and away the closest to a rate, the Bank of England made clear yesterday that the policy focus would be on the softer inflation environment over the coming months, and with slack in the economy, interest rates could remain lower for longer.

For the ECB, today's weaker than anticipated Q1 GDP report, alongside another tepid inflation report, only increases the likelihood that they will follow through with Mario Draghi's promise for action at the June meeting.

The Japanese growth figures are the most intriguing and what really drive the potential for the JPY-crosses to turn lower. With Q1 growth at an annualized rate of +5.9% and non-core inflation (food and energy) soaring, there is little reason to believe that the Bank of Japan will goose the market much more.

All of the sudden, near-term central bank policies may be geared toward a slightly dovish BoE, an outright dovish ECB, and less dovish BoJ - watch the video to see how these themes are influencing EURJPY, GBPJPY, and USDJPY.

Read more: Sterling Top Developing Alongside Euro after BoE: GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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