News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here:
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here:
EUR/USD, GBP/USD Hover Near Breakout Levels - Patience Required

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Hover Near Breakout Levels - Patience Required

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- EURUSD peeking out of triangle to upside, faces trendline test from March and April highs.

- GBPUSD holding in flag/double top pattern still, trade entry nears nevertheless.

- Forex economic calendar heavy with significant US event risk – mainly Durable Goods (MAR).

The major European currencies could be close to a crucial turning point versus the US Dollar over the coming days. However, low volatility has restrained significant moves. In fact, EURUSD 10-day ATR (average trading range) has fallen to its lowest level since mid-2007 – right before the major explosion of volatility that dominated 2008-2011, of course.

That’s not to suggest another 2008 crisis is coming; but rather a commentary on the complacency of market participants in recent weeks. Patience is required in this current market atmosphere. Thankfully, activity on the fundamental front has provided the potential tinder for greater action over the coming days.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Hover Near Breakout Levels - Patience Required

While the US Dollar was beginning to benefit from signs of improved economic data, there is now evidence just over the course of a few short days that US momentum is fading while that in Europe is gaining. Both the Euro-Zone and United Kingdom Citi Economic Surprise Indexes have rallied in recent days, with the Euro variation showing marked improvement on the heels of the April PMI numbers.

As a result of the recent shifts in fundamental momentum, we’re continuing to monitor the EURUSD and GBPUSD for potential breakout opportunities should the low volatility environment dissipate. Both pairs are holding up well in recent days despite the rebound in US Treasury yields.

Forex Technical Analysis: EURUSD Chart (H4)

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Hover Near Breakout Levels - Patience Required

- Now that Euro-Zone economic data is turning around, the staying power of the European Central Bank’s dovish jawboning (threat of QE) without any substantive action is fading once again.

- Technically, EURUSD remains above the descending trendline from the 2008 and 2011 highs, keeping open the possibility of a longer-term breakout high.

- In the medium-term, EURUSD is nearing a key decision moment as it channels into the narrowing support/resistance range dictated by the descending TL from the March and April 2014 highs and by the ascending TL from the July 2013 and February 2014 lows.

- In the short-term, EURUSD has peeked higher out of the triangle developed since April 8, yet has failed to make meaningful progress alongside the rebound in the Slow Stochastic indicator.

- For bulls to take control, price will need to exceed $1.3905 to the upside for a test of the yearly highs near 1.3965.

- For bears, a break under $1.3780 could signal a return to the ascending trendline that’s supported price since the July 2013 low.

Read more: EUR/AUD, EUR/USD Reverse Data Slump; GBP/USD Bull Flag or Double Top

Forex Technical Analysis: GBPUSD Chart (H4)

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Hover Near Breakout Levels - Patience Required

- GBPUSD may be in the midst of a two month long ascending triangle formation, beginning back at the lows seen on February 4 to 7.

- Resistance in the triangle formed against $1.6840, with the most recent failures coming after April 9.

- The past three days price has consolidated into a minor flag (red) between 1.6773 and 1.6840 – these levels mark either side of the range to engage should a breakout opportunity arise. A move through 1.6840 would immediately draw attention for a move towards 1.7000.

Read more: GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Set for Test of Highs or Major Breakdown

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.