News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • ...I don't believe the markets will ever be okay with the Fed bowing out of stimulus. As market sentiment normalizes, speculative exposure increases proportionally, meaning there will always be a market premium to contend with. A form of the sociological 'normalization' effect
  • Equities pull back from session highs as traders eye the FOMC meeting at the top of the hour $ES $SPX $SPY https://t.co/nI3lIr8xVc
  • ...that is my take on the panic around tapering. I'm not advocating for expediting rate hikes, but to continuously punt easing back on stimulus by even a marginal amount only compounds the market's dependencies - increasing moral hazard.
  • 'The economy and markets are so strong that we can't reduce the $120 billion per month asset purchases. Further, if only we can continue this path for an indefinite future, the market will absorb the external risk on its own.'
  • Also, here is the schedule of FOMC meetings from now through the end of 2022. If the Fed doesn't signal taper today, next scheduled time is Nov 2nd and 'quarterly' event time is Dec 14th. Will taper be easier w/ one or two more high CPI updates? https://t.co/XFrwo24xbD
  • Here is my FOMC scenario table going into the rate decision. While a delay in the taper call seems feasible with the market wobble, there will always be wobbles before and the existential threat of a mkt tantrum. Always a hostage? https://t.co/MIDk28lQBS
  • Gold prices are pushing higher so far this week and the FOMC is waiting in the wings with their September rate decision. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/rVrJnq0Rgh https://t.co/td0i0PTQZz
  • RT @CEOAdam: SO FASCINATING! Dogecoin Poll was by far my highest ever read tweet. In 24 hours, 4.2 million views, my most ever retweets, mo…
  • Just checked the Fed's website to see if they accidently release the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) early by accident - happened once before. Nope, not live yet; but this will be the link when it is: https://t.co/GcANEDVowq
  • Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Support Ahead of the Fed - Gold Levels https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/09/22/Gold-Price-Forecast-XAU-USD-XAUUSD-Holds-Support-Ahead-of-the-Fed-Gold-Levels.html $Gold https://t.co/JSZNMCc11w
USDOLLAR Rebound Loses Steam - GBP/USD to Lead Breakout?

USDOLLAR Rebound Loses Steam - GBP/USD to Lead Breakout?

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR testing uptrend from April low.

- GBPUSD at topside of multi-month ascending triangle.

- Forex economic calendar focuses on US housing data on Tuesday.

Yesterday we examined some of the causes behind the US Dollar’s weak start to 2014, which has largely bucked consensus expectations given the widespread belief that US Treasury yields would rise amid the Federal Reserve’s tapering of QE3. Today, the technical vulnerability of the US Dollar is revealed via the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, an equal-weighted basket of the US Dollar versus the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Euro, and Japanese Yen.

Specifically, if the USDOLLAR is on the verge of another downswing, the GBPUSD may be best positioned to take advantage of it going forward:

Forex Technical Analysis: USDOLLAR Chart (H4)

USDOLLAR Rebound Loses Steam - GBP/USD to Lead Breakout?

- USDOLLAR treated 10495/500 as significant support from February to April, before breaking on April 6.

- Post-breakdown resistance has formed at 10470/75 and 10495.

- The uptrend off of the April 10 and 17 lows is currently being tested; a move below 10425 would suggest resumption of the downtrend; below 10400 would confirm it.

- Only a weekly close through 10495/500 would suggest USDOLLAR strength, also representing the descending trendline off of the January, February, and April highs.

Read more: AUD/USD, EUR/USD Set for Late-April Pivots as Liquidity Returns

Forex Technical Analysis: GBPUSD Chart (H4)

USDOLLAR Rebound Loses Steam - GBP/USD to Lead Breakout?

- GBPUSD may be in the midst of a two month long ascending triangle formation, beginning back at the lows seen on February 4 to 7.

- Resistance in the triangle formed against $1.6825, with the most recent failures coming after April 9.

- There have been a series of higher lows forming above the ascending trendline off of the July 2013 and March 2014 lows, suggesting increasing bullish momentum.

- The past three days price has consolidated into a minor flag (red) between 1.6773 and 1.6840 – these levels mark either side of the range to engage should a breakout opportunity arise. A move through 1.6840 would immediately draw attention for a move towards 1.7000.

Read more: GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Set for Test of Highs or Major Breakdown

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES