We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.41%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.13%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/zwiEeGWqsC
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.09% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.13% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.19% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.31% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/BvewuY23QZ
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.05% France 40: -0.08% Wall Street: -0.12% FTSE 100: -0.18% US 500: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/wzqg2S1F14
  • Wall Street Futures Update: S&P 500 (-0.225%) Dow Jones (-0.126%) Nasdaq Composite (-0.194%) [delayed] -BBG
  • The US Dollar is attempting to find direction against the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah as technical levels hold. The Malaysian Ringgit eyes a key trend line. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/lcSLkOnJgQ https://t.co/u3JfwxpCvh
  • The $USD is falling against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah as stock markets rise. Watch out for US-China escalation and Brexit talks. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PziC8KZaIC https://t.co/cQWfmGnb4H
  • (Commodities Briefing) #Gold prices sank as #ADP estimated a smaller contraction in jobs ahead of #NFPs. #CrudeOil prices may fall with the OPEC+ meeting in doubt as #WTI left behind a Doji candlestick #OPEC - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2020/06/04/Gold-Prices-Sink-Crude-Oil-Risks-Falling-with-OPEC-Meeting-in-Doubt.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/fjAnPB3Rc1
  • Seasonal factors, oversupply issues and the outbreak of COVID-19 has seen the price of liquefied #naturalgas (LNG) fall to 22-year lows (1.519), with the situation exacerbated by ‘fuller-than-normal’ storage facilities. Get your market update here:https://t.co/VOqfkBQ4aR https://t.co/fvyX0wfWcg
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.34% Silver: -0.33% Oil - US Crude: -1.80% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/VFJfH2lsYE
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.00% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.12% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.25% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/9wAQM4BGpE
AUD/USD, EUR/USD Set for Late-April Pivots as Liquidity Returns

AUD/USD, EUR/USD Set for Late-April Pivots as Liquidity Returns

2014-04-21 10:45:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- AUDUSD remains above a prior breakout level, yet to achieve inverse H&S target.

- EURUSD more neutral as currently trades within a symmetrical triangle.

- Forex economic calendar modest on Monday.

Over the past five years (QE era of central banks), April has been the worst month during the year for the US Dollar, and this year has proven no different. Down by -0.3% to -0.9% versus the Australian Dollar, the British Pound, the Euro, and the Japanese Yen each, the buck’s stumble in the fourth month of the year is undoubtedly related to the continued string of disappointing economic data.

In fact, the Citi Economic Surprise Index fell to -45.9 on April 7, its lowest level of the year, in the wake of the disappointing March Nonfarm Payrolls report. Hope may have been born again recently, after a series of improved consumption and inflation reports this week; the same surprise index has rebounded to -26.3. If US Dollar strength is to reemerge, the slight rebound in economic data will need to gather pace and push up US yields once more.

At the beginning of the year, the 2s10s Treasury yield spread was 264-bps; now it is 231-bps, just off of the yearly low of 223-bps. A widening spread – steepening yield curve – would be indicative of improved US growth prospects, improved inflation expectations, and a stronger foundation for the US Dollar to regain some of its shine after a less than spectacular start to 2014. Here are two setups we’re watching for the last full week of April:

Forex Technical Analysis: AUDUSD Chart (H4)

AUD/USD, EUR/USD Set for Late-April Pivots as Liquidity Returns

- AUDUSD has been underwhelming the past several days, fading away from its 2014 highs near $0.9460.

- Price has maintained elevation above former flag resistance at 0.9305; as well as former rising channel resistance now at 0.9260; as well as the the ascending trendline off of the April 12 and April 20 lows.

- The Slow Stochastic indicator has reached oversold conditions above a former breakout level, perhaps suggesting that the previous overextension has been ‘digested.’

- Levels to watch lower: 0.9305 (former breakout), 0.9260 (trend), 0.9210, 0.9165, and 0.9085 (channel support).

- Levels to watch higher: 0.9445, 0.9460 (yearly high), 0.9500 (inverse head & shoulders target from 0.8660 low).

Read more: AUD/USD, GBP/USD Still Ripe with Potential after UK Jobs, Chinese GDP

Forex Technical Analysis: EURUSD Chart (H4)

AUD/USD, EUR/USD Set for Late-April Pivots as Liquidity Returns

- The Euro’s fundamentals have been steadily deteriorating the past several weeks, but market participants clearly need to see more from the European Central Bank before trading down the currency.

- The EURUSD has entered a symmetrical triangle pattern on the H4 timeframe, offering opportunity to both bulls and bears alike.

- In the near-term, a break under $1.3780 could signal a return to the ascending trendline that’s supported price since the July 2013 low, coming in near 1.3740 over the next few days.

- Otherwise, a break higher would look for a test of the trendline off of the March and April highs (thus far); breaking 1.3905 to the upside would square up 1.3965/70 for a test.

Read more: EUR/AUD Bottom Developing, EUR/JPY Holds 139.90-143.75 Range

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.