News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Interested in what factors are influencing the GBP this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/BF0gzdigjn #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/psgpGWiWDl
  • The Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stock indexes may find fresh catalysts as the release of Q4 US corporate earnings set the tone for what has been a record-scrapping rally. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/5B9NlmVI6Z https://t.co/0xdeBE3L7Z
  • Crude oil prices are poised to continue their upward trajectory in 2021, but technical signals hint that a near-term pullback may precede the next major push higher. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/ePFyh64cAG https://t.co/Btbz1n5Dfg
  • $USDMXN continues consolidation as bearish momentum eases and bias attempt to turn to the upside. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/J9vJ76Lghq https://t.co/pJGnuuyJNQ
  • The US Dollar breaks out of the range bound price action from the first of January going into the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/GVxAmCkhP5 https://t.co/OC6g9pGhGy
  • Sterling continues to nudge higher against most major currencies with traders placing their trust in the ongoing UK vaccination plan. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/OvFP8Zzz5b https://t.co/rwofebQHTq
  • $EURUSD has dropped sharply over the last few days and may well fall further. However, it is also possible that the bad news is now priced in to the exchange rate and that further weakness will be delayed. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/mDGlI1aS6o https://t.co/1xYg0muBJI
  • The Brexit timeline can be followed one event after another. Use this tool from DailyFX research to sharpen your knowledge on the Brexit timeline here: https://t.co/kFDzTWODDo https://t.co/TT1FwFK8cJ
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/Uz6LKXdR2k
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/fGi6YgqqQt
AUD/USD, EUR/USD Set for Late-April Pivots as Liquidity Returns

AUD/USD, EUR/USD Set for Late-April Pivots as Liquidity Returns

2014-04-21 10:45:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUDUSD remains above a prior breakout level, yet to achieve inverse H&S target.

- EURUSD more neutral as currently trades within a symmetrical triangle.

- Forex economic calendar modest on Monday.

Over the past five years (QE era of central banks), April has been the worst month during the year for the US Dollar, and this year has proven no different. Down by -0.3% to -0.9% versus the Australian Dollar, the British Pound, the Euro, and the Japanese Yen each, the buck’s stumble in the fourth month of the year is undoubtedly related to the continued string of disappointing economic data.

In fact, the Citi Economic Surprise Index fell to -45.9 on April 7, its lowest level of the year, in the wake of the disappointing March Nonfarm Payrolls report. Hope may have been born again recently, after a series of improved consumption and inflation reports this week; the same surprise index has rebounded to -26.3. If US Dollar strength is to reemerge, the slight rebound in economic data will need to gather pace and push up US yields once more.

At the beginning of the year, the 2s10s Treasury yield spread was 264-bps; now it is 231-bps, just off of the yearly low of 223-bps. A widening spread – steepening yield curve – would be indicative of improved US growth prospects, improved inflation expectations, and a stronger foundation for the US Dollar to regain some of its shine after a less than spectacular start to 2014. Here are two setups we’re watching for the last full week of April:

Forex Technical Analysis: AUDUSD Chart (H4)

AUD/USD, EUR/USD Set for Late-April Pivots as Liquidity Returns

- AUDUSD has been underwhelming the past several days, fading away from its 2014 highs near $0.9460.

- Price has maintained elevation above former flag resistance at 0.9305; as well as former rising channel resistance now at 0.9260; as well as the the ascending trendline off of the April 12 and April 20 lows.

- The Slow Stochastic indicator has reached oversold conditions above a former breakout level, perhaps suggesting that the previous overextension has been ‘digested.’

- Levels to watch lower: 0.9305 (former breakout), 0.9260 (trend), 0.9210, 0.9165, and 0.9085 (channel support).

- Levels to watch higher: 0.9445, 0.9460 (yearly high), 0.9500 (inverse head & shoulders target from 0.8660 low).

Read more: AUD/USD, GBP/USD Still Ripe with Potential after UK Jobs, Chinese GDP

Forex Technical Analysis: EURUSD Chart (H4)

AUD/USD, EUR/USD Set for Late-April Pivots as Liquidity Returns

- The Euro’s fundamentals have been steadily deteriorating the past several weeks, but market participants clearly need to see more from the European Central Bank before trading down the currency.

- The EURUSD has entered a symmetrical triangle pattern on the H4 timeframe, offering opportunity to both bulls and bears alike.

- In the near-term, a break under $1.3780 could signal a return to the ascending trendline that’s supported price since the July 2013 low, coming in near 1.3740 over the next few days.

- Otherwise, a break higher would look for a test of the trendline off of the March and April highs (thus far); breaking 1.3905 to the upside would square up 1.3965/70 for a test.

Read more: EUR/AUD Bottom Developing, EUR/JPY Holds 139.90-143.75 Range

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES