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EUR/USD Failing to Retake Former Trend, Gain Traction above 1.3500

EUR/USD Failing to Retake Former Trend, Gain Traction above 1.3500

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- OECD cuts 2014 global growth forecast to +3.6% from +4%.

- Euro-Zone ZEW sentiment hits seven-year high.

- European currencies under pressure since beginning of trading session.

To keep up with the European data and news as the week goes forward, be sure to sign up for my distribution list.

Intraday Price Perspective

EURUSD_Failing_to_Retake_Former_Trend_Gain_Traction_above_1.3500_body_Picture_1.png, EUR/USD Failing to Retake Former Trend, Gain Traction above 1.3500

A scan of this morning’s best and worst performers via the Strong/Weak app shows that the New Zealand Dollar is the big underperformer on the day, with the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen only posting modest gains. The appreciation by the commodity currencies in general has accelerated over the past seveal hours at the expense of the European currencies, which are among the worst performers over the past rolling H4 period.

With a raft of important Euro-Zone data out this morning – including a downgraded OECD growth forecast for next year – the Euro finds itself continuing its battle for $1.3500 against the US Dollar. Evidence of the Euro losing momentum as the pair runs into key resistance offers clear risk for any trades taken.


EURUSD H1 Chart: November 5 to Present

EURUSD_Failing_to_Retake_Former_Trend_Gain_Traction_above_1.3500_body_x0000_i1028.png, EUR/USD Failing to Retake Former Trend, Gain Traction above 1.3500

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- The EURUSD continues to hold above former key support, 1.3440 (grey line on chart above).

- The TL off of the June and August highs serves as former resistance turned support and vice-versa at 1.3500 (black line), and price continues to hold above it the past 24-hours.

- A daily close above the ascending TL off of the July and September lows (blue line) at 1.3525/50 would be required to switch bias from “rebound” to “emerging trend.”

- Bullish outlook crystalizes in short-term on daily close above 1.3550 (pre-ECB swing highs).

- A H4 close under 1.3500 opens up rising TL support from the ECB and NFP lows; 1.3415/45 likely important support.

Read more: Yellen Hangover has Dollar Down, Euro, Kiwi Floating Higher

Here’s a look at the data out of Europe this morning that’s influencing price action:


EURUSD_Failing_to_Retake_Former_Trend_Gain_Traction_above_1.3500_body_x0000_i1029.png, EUR/USD Failing to Retake Former Trend, Gain Traction above 1.3500


There are no data on the British Pound economic calendar on Tuesday, November 19, 2013.


There are no data on the Swiss Franc economic calendar on Tuesday, November 19, 2013.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.