EUR/USD Failing to Retake Former Trend, Gain Traction above 1.3500
- OECD cuts 2014 global growth forecast to +3.6% from +4%.
- Euro-Zone ZEW sentiment hits seven-year high.
- European currencies under pressure since beginning of trading session.
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Intraday Price Perspective
A scan of this morning’s best and worst performers via the Strong/Weak app shows that the New Zealand Dollar is the big underperformer on the day, with the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen only posting modest gains. The appreciation by the commodity currencies in general has accelerated over the past seveal hours at the expense of the European currencies, which are among the worst performers over the past rolling H4 period.
With a raft of important Euro-Zone data out this morning – including a downgraded OECD growth forecast for next year – the Euro finds itself continuing its battle for $1.3500 against the US Dollar. Evidence of the Euro losing momentum as the pair runs into key resistance offers clear risk for any trades taken.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – CHART OF THE DAY
EURUSD H1 Chart: November 5 to Present
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- The EURUSD continues to hold above former key support, 1.3440 (grey line on chart above).
- The TL off of the June and August highs serves as former resistance turned support and vice-versa at 1.3500 (black line), and price continues to hold above it the past 24-hours.
- A daily close above the ascending TL off of the July and September lows (blue line) at 1.3525/50 would be required to switch bias from “rebound” to “emerging trend.”
- Bullish outlook crystalizes in short-term on daily close above 1.3550 (pre-ECB swing highs).
- A H4 close under 1.3500 opens up rising TL support from the ECB and NFP lows; 1.3415/45 likely important support.
Here’s a look at the data out of Europe this morning that’s influencing price action:
EURO-ZONE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
UK ECONOMIC CALENDAR
There are no data on the British Pound economic calendar on Tuesday, November 19, 2013.
SWISS ECONOMIC CALENDAR
There are no data on the Swiss Franc economic calendar on Tuesday, November 19, 2013.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.