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FX Headlines: Euro Eyes ECB Press Conference; Sterling Looks to Next PMI

FX Headlines: Euro Eyes ECB Press Conference; Sterling Looks to Next PMI

2013-10-02 08:20:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Talking Points

- Risk-off in Asia has European FX losing ground to JPY, USD.

- ECB press conference to stoke more volatility than the rate announcement.

- Soft PMI Manufacturing could signal near-term pullback in UK growth momentum; PMI Construction today.

To keep up with the European data and news as the week goes forward, be sure to sign up for my distribution list.

EURO-ZONE ECONOMIC CALENDAR

FX_Headlines_Euro_Eyes_ECB_Press_Conference_Sterling_Looks_to_Next_PMI_body_Picture_1.png, FX Headlines: Euro Eyes ECB Press Conference; Sterling Looks to Next PMI

The recent retracement in individual Euro-Zone countries’ PMI figures points to a “top” in growth having been reached in the near-term, as it appears that a lack of credit growth in the Euro-Zone has become a drag. This was evident in the recent inflation data, which saw the CPI hit a post-crisis low (tied lowest since February 2011).

This concern dates back to early-August when ECB President Draghi first noted the decline in Euro-Zone excess reserves. As noted several weeks ago, we believe there have been indications that another LTRO may be in the works, which would be EUR-negative similar to December 2011 and February 2012. While we do not expect an announcement for another LTRO today, we expect the aforementioned conditions to be heavily emphasized at the meeting, which should prove EUR-negative nonetheless.

Read more: Euro, US Dollar Drop versus Japanese Yen amid Political Déjà Vu

UK ECONOMIC CALENDAR

FX_Headlines_Euro_Eyes_ECB_Press_Conference_Sterling_Looks_to_Next_PMI_body_x0000_i1028.png, FX Headlines: Euro Eyes ECB Press Conference; Sterling Looks to Next PMI

A soft PMI Manufacturing print could signal that a near-term top in UK growth as been reached, as evidence mounts across Europe that the midyear rebound may be cooling. Recently higher interest rates have hit the UK as the Bank of England has backed away from its perceived dovish policy stance that was expected upon Governor Mark Carney’s arrival; and with wage growth dampened, higher rates are likely to hurt interest rate sensitive sectors. A hold near the prior level is expected.

Read more: Pound Eyes 1.6200 on More Hawkish BoE, Stronger U.K. Recovery

SWISS ECONOMIC CALENDAR

There are no data due for the Swiss Franc on Tuesday, October 1.

Read more: US Dollar Set for Breakout, Risk and Budget Standoff Decide Magnitude

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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