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FX Headlines: UK CPI, German ZEW to Spark Minor Pound, Euro Moves

FX Headlines: UK CPI, German ZEW to Spark Minor Pound, Euro Moves

2013-09-17 08:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Talking Points

- Market moving data for both the British Pound and the Euro on Tuesday.

- No data for the Swiss Franc.

- Event risk picks up today starting in Europe.

To keep up with the European data and news as the week goes forward, be sure to sign up for my distribution list.

EURO-ZONE ECONOMIC CALENDAR

FX_Headlines_UK_CPI_German_ZEW_to_Spark_Pound_Euro_Moves_body_Picture_1.png, FX Headlines: UK CPI, German ZEW to Spark Minor Pound, Euro Moves

Euro-Zone economic data has been steadily improving, and even as interest rates across the world have shot up, the region has maintained its modest rebound. Germany has helped lead the rebound, with investor sentiment having been one of the first indicators to turn higher. Accordingly, signs of the Euro-Zone’s early stages of economic revival should be reflected further in the September German ZEW Survey.

The most important figure to watch is the Economic Sentiment subindex of the German ZEW Survey, which is due higher at 45.0 from 42.0. The recent uptick in PMI surveys around the region would confirm building confidence; though the Current Situation subindex might be less predictable given the influence of domestic German politics (parliamentary elections are this week).

Overall, we look to this better than expected data to help revive the Euro, which has more or less dithered against the US Dollar since the EURUSD gapped open higher on Monday.

Read more: It’s Due-or-Die Time for Euro/US Dollar Ahead of FOMC Decision

UK ECONOMIC CALENDAR

FX_Headlines_UK_CPI_German_ZEW_to_Spark_Pound_Euro_Moves_body_x0000_i1028.png, FX Headlines: UK CPI, German ZEW to Spark Minor Pound, Euro Moves

Inflation has been running well-above the Bank of England’s +2% yearly forecast for several years, and the recent upswing in economic growth prospects raises the profile for sustained elevated price pressures. However, with Governor Mark Carney implementing forward guidance in order to tether market rates low for the next few years, there are signs that consumers are adjusting their expectations.

Despite the improved growth figures, August inflation is seen lower to +2.7% y/y, but the revision higher in the core up to +2.1% y/y should insulate any downside in the British Pound. With the ‘circuit breaker’ for forward guidance set at +2.5% y/y in the 3Q’15, sustained higher levels of inflation in the interim should keep Gilt yields supportive of a stronger British Pound.

Read more: Pound Overbought on Upbeat BoE, MPC Minutes to Prompt Fresh Highs

SWISS ECONOMIC CALENDAR

There is no data on the Swiss Franc economic calendar for Tuesday, September 17.

See the Swiss Franc economic calendar for the week of September 15 to 20.

Read more: Gold Posts Largest Drop Since June Ahead of Fed – Bearish Below $1373

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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