Talking Points

- Neither the Bank of England nor the European Central Bank should make significant policy changes today.

- Risk to British Pound: a more concerted indication that that QE could be used to push yields lower.

- Risk to Euro, Swiss Franc: no upgrade to growth forecasts, downbeat on credit growth.

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FX_Headlines_BoE_and_ECB_Top_Events_What_to_Watch_for_Pound_Euro_body_Picture_1.png, FX Headlines: BoE and ECB Top Events - What to Watch for Pound, Euro

German Factory Orders for July are due up first today for Europe and should give insight as to how far the Euro-Zone’s recovery extended as the 3Q’13 began. Although Germany has weathered the continental debt crisis better than its counterparts, its exporters are vulnerable to pan-European problems.

As such, factory orders serve as a bellweather for growth in the broader region. A beat here underscores the emerging growth story for the Euro-Zone.

The big event on the day is the ECB policy meeting, although it is likely to go off without much fanfare. The rebound in growth in the region could provoke an upward revision to the central bank’s 2013 and 2014 forecasts, but in light of sustained weak credit growth and dampened inflation, a neutral tone overall looks to be struck.

Accordingly, the Euro is at risk as ECB President Mario Draghi may want to avoid overbearing optimism insofar as it would run afront to the central bank’s recent inclusion of “forward guidance” into its policy tool kit. Read my full take on the ECB and the Euro here: Euro Risks Weighted to Downside Ahead of ECB, NFPs


FX_Headlines_BoE_and_ECB_Top_Events_What_to_Watch_for_Pound_Euro_body_x0000_i1028.png, FX Headlines: BoE and ECB Top Events - What to Watch for Pound, Euro

While BoE Governor Mark Carney wants to keep interest rates low, it is clear that forward guidance simply isn’t as strong as a dovish policy tool as QE – at least in the face of an improving economy. I wouldn’t put it past the British Pound to see price action today resemble what we’ve seen each of the past two times Governor Carney has spoken (see this and that). Ultimately, that means modest Sterling weakness ahead of time; and strength thereafter.


There are no data on the Swiss Franc economic calendar for Thursday, September 5.

See the Swiss Franc economic calendar for the week of September 1 to 6.

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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