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  • I'm not usually big with head and shoulders patterns but there are conflicting signals in $USD atm. 1st chart here is on h4 and it's a h&s with neckline ~ 90. 2nd chart is on h8, and its an inverse h&s with neckline ~ 91. Given calendar, a break this week can def happen.
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  • Today was the 'quiet' session of the week with only a few high profile indicators on tap. The high profile fundamental themes start up in earnest tomorrow (including the IMF's WEO). We will see how speculative charge for the likes of GME competes with global growth forecasts
  • US Dollar Head and Shoulders Pattern, Focus on USD/CAD, NZD/USD
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  • $AUDJPY fell to an intraday low around 79.77, hitting its lowest level since early last week. The pair has since rebounded to trade back above 80.00. $AUD $JPY
  • US Indices have pared some of their losses, with the S&P and Nasdaq trading back in the green. DOW -0.19% NDX +0.39% SPX +0.17% RUT -0.76% $DOW $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • USD/MXN is in the midst of a bullish breakout from a short-term falling wedge pattern, but this plots in the midst of a much longer-term falling wedge pattern. Get your $USDMX market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Italian PM Conte convenes cabinet for Tuesday to inform ministers he is resigning - Cabinet office $EUR Confirming earlier reports
  • Gains on $WTI Crude have stalled out this month below $54.00. The commodity is currently trading around $52.30 after falling to a two-week low late last week. $OIL $USO
FX Headlines: Euro Looks to ECB for Support After Strong PMI Revisions

FX Headlines: Euro Looks to ECB for Support After Strong PMI Revisions

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist


FX_Headlines_Euro_Looks_to_ECB_for_Support_After_Strong_PMI_Revisions_body_Picture_1.png, FX Headlines: Euro Looks to ECB for Support After Strong PMI Revisions

Euro-Zone PMI revisions were positive across the board today, with the EZ PMI Manufacturing gauge rising to its highest level all year, and the German PMI Manufacturing gauge rising to its highest level in 18-months. However, in the wake of these releases, the Euro remained near its session lows versus the US Dollar.

Nevertheless, both these data feed into the near-term turnaround in growth prospects, which should help feed optimism at the European Central Bank, preventing any new major dovish measures from coming into play. Overall, a hold by the ECB today should prove Euro-positive in light of recent events.


FX_Headlines_Euro_Looks_to_ECB_for_Support_After_Strong_PMI_Revisions_body_x0000_i1028.png, FX Headlines: Euro Looks to ECB for Support After Strong PMI Revisions

Like with the Euro-Zone, British data has been on the upswing since late-May and the trend is expected to continue today with the July PMI Manufacturing report. The strong expectation (52.8) feeds into the idea that the Bank of England will keep its QE aspirations quelled at today’s meeting, which should be Sterling-positive.

However, as was made clear by the inclusion of a policy statement and forward guidance at the July 4 meeting, the intention of Governor Carney had been to clarify policy and be more transparent; the desired end result is to let market participants know that UK interest rates will be kept lower for the foreseeable future.

Read more: Aussie, Euro, Sterling, and US Dollar Primed for Big Moves this Week


There are no data on the Swiss Franc economic calendar for Thursday, August 1.

See the Swiss Franc economic calendar for the week of July 28 to August 2.

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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