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FX Headlines: European Data Watch for July 25, 2013

FX Headlines: European Data Watch for July 25, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist


- British Pound Looks Higher Ahead of 2Q GDP as BoE Votes Unanimously

- Euro Stability in the Face of Financial Trouble a Sign of Strength?

- Japanese Elections Pave Way for Choppy Trade this Week amid Light Calendar


FX_Headlines_European_Data_Watch_for_July_25_2013_body_Picture_1.png, FX Headlines: European Data Watch for July 25, 2013

Although only ranked as a ‘medium’ importance event, the German IFO survey tends to stoke volatility in EUR-based pairs. Accordingly, with economic activity picking up in June and now early July thanks to Wednesday’s PMI releases, the German IFO survey is expected to show a modest improvement overall.

Of note, the Expectations subindex is paramount: German and broader Euro-Zone policy is currently held at bay due to the German elections in September. As such, an improvement in Expectations would signal greater confidence in the region and less fear of a tail risk scenario playing out over the 3Q’13.


FX_Headlines_European_Data_Watch_for_July_25_2013_body_x0000_i1028.png, FX Headlines: European Data Watch for July 25, 2013

The most important European data of the week are due on Thursday when the UK will release its 2Q’13 GDP report. Given the rebound in May and June PMI figures, above trend growth is expected; and the +1.4% yearly print would be the fastest growth since the 1Q’11 (+1.7%), and the first print above +1.0% since the 4Q’11 (+1.1%).

In light of the introduction of Governor Mark Carney to lead the Bank of England, a miss here has dire consequences for the British Pound; and vice-versa. Excess volatility, especially in relation to the volatility we’ve seen in recent days (which has fallen sharply, as Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez notes), should be expected.


There are no data on the Swiss Franc economic calendar for Thursday, July 25.

See the Swiss Franc economic calendar for the week of July 21 to 26.

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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