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FX Headlines: European Data Watch for June 18, 2013

FX Headlines: European Data Watch for June 18, 2013

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

EUROPEAN FX HEADLINES: WEEK OF JUNE 16

- Euro and US Dollar Traders on Edge Ahead of Critical FOMC Decision

- British Pound Eyes Fresh Highs on Faster Inflation, BoE Minutes

- All Eyes on Fed Meeting on Wednesday; No Taper but Hawkish Guidance

EURO-ZONE ECONOMIC CALENDAR

FX_Headlines_European_Data_Watch_for_June_18_2013_body_Picture_1.png, FX Headlines: European Data Watch for June 18, 2013

The Euro-zone calendar this week picks up today with the market moving June ZEW Survey due for both the broader Euro-zone and Germany. The recent improvement in growth data in May is likely to be reflected in the June sentiment surveys, with German Economic Sentiment notably expected to improve back to 38.1, after having fallen off from the yearly highs set in March at 48.5.

Overall, the three-month averages for both components of the German ZEW Survey – Current Situation and Economic Sentiment – remain near their lowest levels since mid-2010, underscoring the fragility of growth prospects in the region. Accordingly, given the recent sustained elevated exchange rate of the Euro relative to its major peers, risk is weighted to the downside as the ‘good news’ has thus far been priced in; a miss on a significant report such as the ZEW Survey would likely lead to selling pressure anew.

UK ECONOMIC CALENDAR

FX_Headlines_European_Data_Watch_for_June_18_2013_body_x0000_i1028.png, FX Headlines: European Data Watch for June 18, 2013

Headline risk out of the UK on Tuesday comes in the form of May inflation data, as the recent bout of disinflation appears to have run its course with an uptick on the headline yearly figures expected. While the headline CPI figure is expected to rebound to +2.6% y/y from +2.4% y/y, the core reading – the Bank of England’s preferred measuring stick for the UK’s stick price pressures – is only expected to tick marginally higher above the BoE’s +2% yearly target, to +2.1%.

These figures fit in nearly with the recent uptick in UK data in May, and add to the growing belief that incoming BoE Governor Mark Carney will be forced to take a more cautious approach during his first months. Earlier in the year, disinflation coupled with modest labor market growth and quelled growth prospects – culminating in the UK losing its ‘AAA’ rating in February – stirred speculation that Governor Carney would take the reins and implement extremely dovish policies. In December 2012, Governor Carney suggested that central banks hadn’t reached the bottom of their policy toolbox despite interest rates tethered near zero, going so far as to suggest that nominal GDP targeting could be implemented.

As such, further upside in UK CPI readings puts any chance of new dovish policies on hold in the near-term, which inherently is supportive of higher Gilt yields and thus a stronger British Pound. I’ll be looking for the British Pound to rally, particularly against the Euro and the US Dollar, on a strong CPI reading; join me at 04:15 EDT/08:15 GMT in the DailyFX Live Trading Room to discuss trade setups ahead of the data release.

SWISS ECONOMIC CALENDAR

There are no key events on the calendar for the Swiss Franc on Tuesday, June 18.

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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