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Forex: Euro Leads Modestly but Aussie and Kiwi Drop

Forex: Euro Leads Modestly but Aussie and Kiwi Drop

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist


Global risk-appetite was looking quite bullish earlier this morning, ahead of the US trading session, but over the past several hours, and especially into the European close, sentiment became increasingly negative, dropping the S&P 500 to fresh November lows.

In Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he would dissolve parliament, moving aside for new elections that would all but remove his party from power. With political pressure, especially from the opposition, on the Bank of Japan increasing over the past several months, it is likely that the new prime minister pushes aggressively for an ultra-dovish monetary policy – dare I say unlimited balance sheet expansion? This has sunk the Japanese Yen relatively significantly on the day.

In Europe, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King essentially said that the central bank would purse a monetary policy set decisively on the dovish path, saying that more QE would be an option, and that the central bank would not raise the key interest rate from 0.50% anytime soon. British Pound has been increasingly weak throughout the session.

Also in Europe, some more news out of Spain has lifted the Euro, that perhaps is a hint that the country is moving closer to a bailout. The European Commission’s Olli Rehn endorsed the measures set forth by the Mariano Rajoy-led Spanish government, noting that the sizeable measures undertaken are in line with expectations among Euro-zone ministers.

In the US, the October Advance Retail Sales figure disappointed, with some discouraging underlying components suggesting the fiscal cliff may already be taking a toll on the economy.


EUR: +0.32%




AUD: -0.38%


JPY: -1.02%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.31% (+0.36% past 5-days)

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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