News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Nasdaq Ekes Out Small Gain As Focus Turns to FOMC, Uber Flies On Bullish Guidance $NDX $UBER #trading #FED
  • Fedex Q1 Results: Revenues: $22.0B vs. $21.8B est. EPS $4.37 vs. $4.92 est. $FDX down roughly 2.25% AH
  • In this week's Macro Setup @CVecchioFX, discusses with @RiskReversal and @GuyAdami, news regarding property developer Evergrande weighing down US financial markets, and September's Fed meeting impact on assets. Tune into the markets now!
  • Copper demand continues to outstrip supply, according to the recent update from the International Copper Study Group. Get your $XAG market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • China to be carbon-neutral by 2060; country will stop building coal-powered projects abroad - BBG
  • Curious to know if this is because a) bailout by Beijing is still widely viewed as the base case scenario if contagion materializes and/or b) recent backstops implemented globally to curb financial market fallout have effectively supplanted left tail risk
  • video uploaded from today's webinar
  • WTI crude rebounded nicely from session lows, now trading at $70.50 $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • RT @ZabelinDimitri: Regarding the Fed dot plot⬇️ "If another two officials were to move up their expectations for a rate increase into 2022…
  • Tonight will see Chinese markets open after a two day closure to observe mid-Autumn festival. Naturally, there will be increased focus and volatility given the current backdrop of Evergrande default concerns. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
Commodity Currencies Turn Around but Euro Slide Continues

Commodity Currencies Turn Around but Euro Slide Continues

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Fundamental Headlines

- Biggest U.S. Banks Curb Loans as Regional Firms Fill Gap – Bloomberg

- Moody’s Downgrades 28 Spanish Banks on Sovereign Risk – Bloomberg

- Euro-zone Big Four Confer After Fifth State Seeks Aid – Reuters

- Italy Approves Monte di Paschi Aid – WSJ

- Report Suggests ECB Bank Supervision – WSJ

Asian/European Session Summary

Data was sparse in the overnight (as it is for the most of the week), giving way to some consolidation if not some slight upside in Asian and European equity markets. Similarly, and as expected, high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets rebounded as well following yesterday’s decline, led by the commodity currency bloc. Amidst the rally by the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars has been some notable strength by the Japanese Yen, which has continued its rebound after the USDJPY was rejected at 80.60 on Friday.

Helping push the Yen higher has been an under the radar flight to safety in Asia, with recent data by the Bank of Japan confirming this. The BoJ’s balance of reserves held by banks and financial institutions at the BoJ rose to a record ¥43.49 trillion; and the massive current account surplus at the BoJ suggests that investors are preparing for the worst. For historical reference, the previous record for reserves held at the BoJ was set last year, when reserves totaled ¥42.57 trillion in the wake of the Japanese earthquake and ensuing nuclear disaster.

Adding to the underlying risk-off momentum – one that hasn’t really materialized today, but as noted, I believe that bonds tend to lead all – has been disappointing credit market developments out of Italy and Spain. Out of Spain, short-term borrowing costs nearly tripled at an auction this morning, with the yield paid on 3-month bill shooting up to 2.362% from 0.846% just a month ago. On 6-month bills, the yield paid rose to 3.237% from 1.737% in May.

Meanwhile, in Italy, both data and this morning’s credit auction have further added to the Euro’s woes. Italian Retail Sales in April contracted by 6.8 percent on a yearly-basis, a clear sign that consumers have been paring back their consumption habits in expectation of crushing austerity measures coming down the pipe in the coming months. At the auction this morning, Italian 2-year notes’ yield paid rose to 4.712% from 4.04% in May, the highest such level since December 2011.

If anything, one thing is blatantly obvious: Italy and Spain are quickly headed towards bailouts.

Taking a look at credit, both Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds’ yields have moved over the 6% threshold, trading at 6.068% and 6.683%, respectively. On the shorter-end of the curve similar price action has been observed, with the Italian and Spanish 2-year note yields rising to 4.471% and 4.832%, respectively.

EURJPY 5-min Chart: June 26, 2012

Commodity_Currencies_Turn_Around_but_Euro_Slide_Continues_body_Picture_1.png, Commodity Currencies Turn Around but Euro Slide Continues

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

The New Zealand has been the top performer on the day, with the NZDUSD rallying for 0.36 percent in thus far on Tuesday. The Euro has been the worst performer, shedding 0.16 percent against the US Dollar. The Japanese Yen is stronger as well, gaining 0.28 percent against the US Dollar. The other commodity currencies, the Australian and Canadian Dollars, are firmer as well, up 0.24 percent and 0.16 percent.

24-Hour Price Action

Commodity_Currencies_Turn_Around_but_Euro_Slide_Continues_body_Picture_8.png, Commodity Currencies Turn Around but Euro Slide ContinuesCommodity_Currencies_Turn_Around_but_Euro_Slide_Continues_body_Picture_2.png, Commodity Currencies Turn Around but Euro Slide Continues

Key Levels: 14:20 GMT

Commodity_Currencies_Turn_Around_but_Euro_Slide_Continues_body_Picture_5.png, Commodity Currencies Turn Around but Euro Slide Continues

Thus far, on Tuesday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is trading slightly lower, at 10161.08 at the time this report was written, after opening at 10163.83. The index has traded mostly lower, with the high at 10166.87 and the low at 10132.56.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.