News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD has been climbing gently in the past few days after its recent steep falls. However, that was probably just position-squaring ahead of further weakness. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here:
  • 6 out of 9 Dow Jones sectors ended higher, with 73.3% of the index’s constituents closing in the green. Healthcare (+1.48%), information technology (+1.47%) and consumer discretionary (+1.15%) were among the best performers, while consumer staples (-0.36%) lagged behind.
  • Build your EUR/USD strategy with key trading techniques. Get your free insight here.
  • $USDMXN is keeping nicely to its descending trendline, aiming below the 20 pesos mark in the short-term. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST (12:30GMT) on DailyFX! -
  • The $AUDUSD chart is tilting towards lower levels, will need to round the corner soon to turn outlook bullish. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • A forex trader is strategic, disciplined and always switched on to the markets. Learn how to build an FX mindset here:
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed an inverse “Head and Shoulders” pattern, which is typically viewed as a bullish trend reversal indicator. Prices may advance further to challenge their all-time highs. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here:
Optimism on Greek Deal Stokes Risk-Appetite; Chinese Rate Cut Helps

Optimism on Greek Deal Stokes Risk-Appetite; Chinese Rate Cut Helps

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Fundamental Headlines

- Merkel as Europe’s Debt Crisis Iron Lady Bucks German Street on Greek Aid – Bloomberg

- Stocks, Metals Gain as China Cuts Reserve Ratio – Bloomberg

- Greek Austerity and Reform Measures – Reuters

- Finance Ministers Look to Sign off on Greek Deal – WSJ

- Japan Posts Largest Trade Deficit on Record – WSJ

European Session Summary

Higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets took a major turn higher in the Asian and European sessions, with the U.S. Dollar posting its worst performance against the Euro in over a week. The safe havens – the Japanese Yen and the U.S. Dollar – were hit from two angles: optimism over the Greek deal; and the People’s Bank of China decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio.

In regards to the latter, the PBOC is now showing its cards, and they don’t suggest a bullish growth outlook for one of the world’s most important economies. Even as price pressures took a turn higher in January, coming in at 4.5 percent year-over-year above the 4.1 percent expectation, collapsing domestic demand and a struggling housing market have reignited concerns over a hard landing. Should this be the case, which looks increasingly likely, another credit bubble could be forming in China.

In regards to Greece, it is of no surprise that the initial commentary from the Brussels summit has been hopeful. There are some impediments to a deal emerging, however, with Dutch Finance Minister Jan Cornelius de Jager saying that there needs to be a permanent Troike presence in Athens in order to ensure that the reforms promised by the interim Greek government are actually enacted (recent data has showed that the austerity reforms are posing a greater burden on the economy than previous anticipated).

Taking a look at credit, Euro-zone periphery sovereign debt is capitulating to the rally by higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets, with the Greek 10-year bond tightening by 29-basis points against its German counterpart. Similarly, the Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds gained 9- and 10-basis points, respectively. What was interesting, and should be monitored, is the relative underperformance of Portuguese yields (only down to 11.327 percent on the 10-year) and the weakening of Irish bonds.

EUR/USD 5-min Chart: February 20, 2012

Optimism_on_Greek_Deal_Stokes_Risk-Appetite_Chinese_Rate_Cut_Helps_body_Picture_1.png, Optimism on Greek Deal Stokes Risk-Appetite; Chinese Rate Cut Helps

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Overall, the U.S. Dollar was the worst performing currency in the overnight, but given the swath of optimism to emerge over the weekend, such an occurrence was not entirely unexpected. What was expected and did pan out was the relative weakness of the Japanese Yen, which continues to face downside pressure following the country’s weak growth reading in the fourth quarter and the subsequent decision by the Bank of Japan to inject an additional ¥10 trillion ($128 billion) into the economy.

In terms of the top performers, the New Zealand Dollar led the majors, while the Swiss Franc was a close second. The Franc’s performance comes as little surprise, however, given the strength of the Euro. Since September 6, when the Swiss National Bank pegged the EURCHF at a minimum 1.2000 rate, the EURUSD and USDCHF have held a significant -0.93 correlation (Euro strength = Franc strength).

24-Hour Price Action

Optimism_on_Greek_Deal_Stokes_Risk-Appetite_Chinese_Rate_Cut_Helps_body_Picture_2.png, Optimism on Greek Deal Stokes Risk-Appetite; Chinese Rate Cut HelpsOptimism_on_Greek_Deal_Stokes_Risk-Appetite_Chinese_Rate_Cut_Helps_body_Picture_8.png, Optimism on Greek Deal Stokes Risk-Appetite; Chinese Rate Cut Helps

Key Levels: 14:20 GMT

Optimism_on_Greek_Deal_Stokes_Risk-Appetite_Chinese_Rate_Cut_Helps_body_Picture_5.png, Optimism on Greek Deal Stokes Risk-Appetite; Chinese Rate Cut Helps

Thus far, on Monday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is trading lower, at 9793.15 at the time this report was written, after opening at 9807.05. The index has traded mostly lower, with the high at 9808.71 and the low at 9779.47. It is worth noting that the index closed at 9825.69 on Friday.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.