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RBA Minutes Indicate Higher Rates Likely "At Some Point", Monitoring Possible Uneven Recovery

RBA Minutes Indicate Higher Rates Likely "At Some Point", Monitoring Possible Uneven Recovery

2011-05-17 02:19:00
David Liu, Technical Strategist
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The RBA’s minutes released today showed that the central bank, although closely monitoring higher inflation in the future, indicated that higher interest rates may also hinder some parts of the economy. Although the Australian dollar gained against its American counterpart early after the release, it pared its gains as growth concerns dampened demand for the currency.

Highlights from today’s minutes include:

  • RBA sees rate increases probably “at some point” to ease inflation
  • Core inflation seen as having “troughed,” global inflation risks moving to upside
  • Housing and construction sector “subdued,” other sector growth “slightly more positive”
  • “Significant divergences” in different sectors posing economic challenges
  • Stronger Australian dollar and savings rate keeping inflation pressures low
  • Aussie dollar rise causing some markets to “underperform”
  • Monetary policy should be set for “overall” economic state, needs

The Australian dollar strengthened immediately after the report after most counterparts after interest rate hike expectations drove up demand for the yield currency. Although the RBA have moved to include more hawkish views in their meetings from their previous “wait-and-see” approach, today’s minutes showed for the first time concern that the overall recovery may be uneven cut investor risk appetite, leading the AUDUSD to pare its early gains.

RBA_Minutes_Indicate_Higher_Rates_Likely_body_Picture_1.png, RBA Minutes Indicate Higher Rates Likely "At Some Point", Monitoring Possible Uneven Recovery

AUDUSD 5 minute chart; Green line indicates data release at 0130GMT | Chart generated with FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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