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U.K. Business Investment and Swiss Growth Outlook Improve Adding to Case For Global Recovery

U.K. Business Investment and Swiss Growth Outlook Improve Adding to Case For Global Recovery

2010-03-26 12:14:00
John Rivera, Currency Analyst
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FX3.26

Fundamental Headlines

• Greek Plan Reassures Debt Markets – Wall Street Journal
• New Plan to Reduce Mortgage Balances – Wall Street Journal
• Fed outlines balance sheet plan - Financial Times
Euro Rallies From 10-Month Low on Aid Plan for Greece; Treasuries Rebound - Bloomberg
• JPMorgan, Lehman, UBS Named as Muni Bid Conspirators - Bloomberg



GBP/USD  The final reading of U.K. 4Q  total business investment showed a decline of -4.3% which was revised up from the initial reading of -5.2. A 10.9% jump in agriculture offset a 23.2% freefall in construction. A week housing market will continue to deter building as tight credits markets have slowed demand. Business investment declined by 23.5% from the year prior which is why the BoE has been reluctant to bring an end to their asset purchase program. Policy makers still see considerable slack in the economy and a lack of liquidity would only increase downside risks.  To discuss this and other topics, please visit the GBP/USD forum.

USD/CHF– 
The Swiss KOF institute raised their growth forecasts for 2010 and 2011  with next year’s outlook nearly tripled to 1.7% from 0.6%. The survey of overall; business economic activity is predicting that growth will continue to improve into 2011 at a pace of 2.2% versus early forecasts of 1.5%. Investment in machinery is expected to significantly increase by 2.4% and 10.5% in the next two years, as producers look to meet the needs of an improving global economy. Export demand will be the main contributor to growth with domestic demand expected to improve by 2.1% and 2.0% respectively. The rosier outlook should ease the SNB’s concerns over deflation which may make them more reluctant to intervene in currency markets to deter Franc appreciation.
 

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