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Mexican Peso Outlook: USD/MXN Bears Tire Near Downtrend Support

Mexican Peso Outlook: USD/MXN Bears Tire Near Downtrend Support

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Mexican Peso Technical Price Outlook: USD/MXN Near-term Trade Levels

  • Mexican Peso updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/MXN decline fails to hold below support – risk for bear market recovery
  • Key near-term resistance 20.6301 – decline vulnerable into 19.8794

The US Dollar plummeted more than 9.2% off the monthly highs against the Mexican Peso with USD/MXN now probing longer-term technical support. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the bears may be vulnerable near-term just above downtrend support. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/MXN technical price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Peso setup and more.

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Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Daily

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Daily - Dollar vs Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/MXN on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Mexican Peso Price Outlook we noted that USD/MXN was probing a key support zone at the, “2019 high-day close / Fibonacci support at 20.0752/1360 – looking for inflection off this threshold.” Price closed last week just below this threshold with reversal candle today threatening a recovery within the broader downtrend.

Initial daily resistance eyed at the 75% parallel (currently ~20.6500) backed by the September low at 20.8377- broader bearish invalidation steady at 21.2317/2942. Look for a close below the June 2019 highs at 19.8794 to mark resumption with such a scenario exposing the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at 19.3497.

Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN 120min

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN 120min - Dollar vs Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Peso price action shows USD/MXN continuing to trade within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation extending off the June / September highs. A brief test of the monthly lows failed today with price attempting to close higher on the day. Initial resistance 20.4336 with a breach above 20.6301 needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway. Initial support steady at 19.8794 backed by the lower parallel / 19.6591- use caution, a break below this threshold would likely fuel accelerated losses for the dollar.

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Bottom line: Mexican Peso is carving the weekly opening-range just above downtrend support and while the broader risk remains lower, the immediate decline may be vulnerable here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short exposure / lower protective stop – be on the lookout for downside exhaustion while above 19.6591 with a breach / close above 20.6301 needed to shift the focus higher in USD/MXN.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy


Key US / Mexico Data Releases

Key US / Mexico Data Releases - USD/MXN Economic Calendar- Key Peso Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.