Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Dollar vs Mexican Peso Price Outlook: USD/MXN Rally to be Short Lived

Dollar vs Mexican Peso Price Outlook: USD/MXN Rally to be Short Lived

What's on this page

Mexican Peso Technical Price Outlook: USD/MXN Near-term Trade Levels

  • Mexican Peso updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/MXN five-day decline rebounds off technical support
  • Risk for topside exhaustion ahead of 23.1089 – key near-term support 22.1495

The US Dollar rallied more than 1% against the Mexican Peso since the start of the week with USD/MXN rebounding off confluence technical support early in the session. The reversal threatens a larger recovery but keeps price with the confines of the broader downtrend and we’re looking for a reaction just higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/MXN technical price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Peso trade setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Dec 22
( 13:12 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Short-term Trading Strategy Webinar
Register for Webinar
Join Now
Webinar Has Ended

Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Daily

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Daily - Dollar vs Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/MXN on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Mexican Peso Price Outlook we noted that the price advance was, “testing resistance at the monthly range highs,” with the 38.2% retracement of the March decline just higher at 23.1089. A breach above the June opening-range highs attempted to breach this threshold for two consecutive days but failed to close above. A decline of more than 4% off that mark rebounded early this week off a key support zone at 22.0376/1503 – a region defined by the 2017 swing high, the 61.8% retracement of the June range and the 50% retracement of the broader yearly range.

A break / close below is needed to mark resumption towards the June lows and more significant Fibonacci support confluence at 21.2317/2941. Daily resistance stands at 22.8179 backed by the July open at 22.9773- broader bearish invalidation remains steady at 23.1089.

Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN 120min

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN 120min - Dollar vs Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Peso price action shows USD/MXN trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation – note that the median-line converged on the June open / 61.8% retracement at 22.1348/1495 into the open of the week. Initial resistance now stands at 22.6908 backed by 22.8176 & 22.9425 – both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Initial support rests with the weekly open / 50% retracement at 22.3435/3853 with a break of the weekly opening range low needed to shift the focus lower again.

USD Forecast
USD Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download Our Latest Quarterly US Dollar Price Forecasts!
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The USD/MXN rebounded off key support early in the week and the recovery may have more upside near-term. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch toward the upper parallel - be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion near downtrend resistance IF price is indeed heading lower.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy


Key US / Mexico Data Releases

Key US / Mexico Data Releases - USD/MXN Economic Calendar - Dollar vs Peso Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.