News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence (JUL) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 37.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-02
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Markit Manufacturing PMI (JUL) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 50.5 Previous: 48.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-02
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/Cp7rWEyFSQ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.66%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 74.99%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/3A9cyM59SZ
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.00% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/BKGiHCcP2s
  • Gold Prices Risk Forming a “Double Top” Despite Yields Drop https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/08/02/Gold-Prices-Risk-Forming-a-Double-Top-Despite-Yields-Drop.html https://t.co/1eAb5dp3ew
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.52% US 500: 0.51% FTSE 100: 0.49% France 40: 0.47% Wall Street: 0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/PJsDVKC0H2
  • 🇮🇩 Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) Actual: 1.52% Expected: 1.45% Previous: 1.33% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-02
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.45% Previous: 1.33% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-02
  • (ASEAN Fundy) US Dollar Outlook: SGD, THB, IDR, PHP May Benefit on Slowing Covid Growth, Soft NFPs #USD #ASEAN $USDSGD $USDTHB $USDIDR $USDPHP https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/08/02/US-Dollar-Outlook-SGD-THB-IDR-PHP-May-Benefit-on-Slowing-Covid-Growth-Soft-NFPs.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/e5WczRhUl6
Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Under Review

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Under Review

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD near-term breakout vulnerable into 1.4260
  • Constructive while above 1.39

The US Dollar pressed higher against the Canadian Dollar this week with USD/CAD up more than 1% since the Sunday open. A near-term price breakout could see some further gains but the advance remains vulnerable while below the yearly high-week close. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie trade setup and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the USD/CAD rally was, “testing lateral resistance here at 1.4534/65 and the immediate advance may be vulnerable IF price holds this threshold into the close.” Price tested this resistance threshold for five consecutive days before reversing sharply lower into the close of March trade.

A topside break of the weekly opening-range yesterday has fueled a near-term recovery in price with the rally eyeing initial daily resistance at the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline at 1.4166. Broader bearish invalidation stands at the yearly high-week close / 61.8% retracement at 1.4336/57. Initial daily support rest at the monthly low-day close at 1.3903 backed by key support at the 2017 highs / 50% retracement of the yearly range at 1.3793-1.3812.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation after breaching downtrend channel resistance yesterday. Initial resistance objectives eyed at 1.4166 and 1.4261- a region of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Monthly open support rests at 1.4058 backed by the highlighted trendline confluence around 1.3950s. Ultimately a break below 1.3920 would be needed to invalidate the near-term long-bias.

Bottom line: A near-term breakout in USD/CAD keep the immediate focus weighted to the topside but we’re looking for an exhaustion high just higher. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards the upper parallel with the recovery still vulnerable while below 1.4357. A break below 1.39 would be needed to fuel the next leg lower in price. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at –1.44 (41.06% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are18.24% higher than yesterday and 39.58% higher from last week
  • Short positions are2.12% higher than yesterday and 14.01% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. From a sentiment standpoint, the recent changes in positioning warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

---

Key US / Canada Data Releases

Key US / Canada Data Releases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES