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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Rips as Markets Surges on Virus Stimulus

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Rips as Markets Surges on Virus Stimulus

2020-03-26 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Near-term Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • EUR/USD breaks monthly downtrend resistance- rally testing initial resistance hurdle
  • Immediate focus is on a break of the 1.0976/95 price range

Euro has rallied more than 2.5% against the US Dollar this week with a breakout of monthly downtrend resistance now testing the first major technical resistance level. We’re looking for evidence that Euro may in fact be basing as the largest fiscal aid package in history stokes broader risk sentiment. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD price charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Euro Trade Outlook - Techncial Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: Euro surged more than 3.3% off fresh yearly lows this week with EUR/USD rallying back above the 2019 close low today at 1.0897. Price is attempting to mount the 2019 low-week close at 1.0976- look for a close above to keep the immediate rally viable with a breach above monthly open resistance at 1.1045 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. Daily support rests with the December trendline, currently ~1.0860s backed by 1.0777.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - EURUSD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action sees EUR/USD trading within a near-term ascending channel formation off the lows with a breakout of the monthly descending channel taking price into confluence resistance today at 1.0976/95- look for a reaction here. A topside breach exposes subsequent resistance objectives at 1.1045/52 and key resistance at 1.1167/87- an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached.

Interim support rests at 1.0897 backed by near-term bullish invalidation at 1.0821. Ultimately, a break below key support at the weekly open / low-day close at 1.0691-1.0707 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.

EUR Forecast
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Bottom line: Euro may be carving a near-term bottom here with the recent price breakout now testing the first major resistance hurdle. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- pullbacks should be limited to 1.0821 IF price is indeed heading higher with a breach above the monthly open needed to suggest a larger EUR/USD price recovery is underway. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for an in-depth look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - EURUSD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.19 (54.34% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are 3.53% lower than yesterday and 52.28% higher from last week
  • Short positions are21.09% higher than yesterday and 4.54% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -7% -9% -8%
Weekly -23% 20% 3%
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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