We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.31% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.43% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.48% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.00% 🇬🇧GBP: -1.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ST3oKR8Kyt
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.81% Gold: 0.37% Silver: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/tCzfLiJU9V
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.35%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 67.31%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/gifjQE3Pk8
  • Germany affirmed 'AAA/A-1+', outlook stable by S&P - BBG
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.09% US 500: -0.02% Wall Street: -0.02% France 40: -0.25% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7j8XbhvJFw
  • Trump: - Energy Secretary should look for other places to store oil - BBG
  • $GBPUSD finds resistance after crossing back below 1.2300 this morning https://t.co/QukmSLfko3
  • My portfolio is now up %600 https://t.co/Tb4Hz3zAyS
  • Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Coils After Loonie Breakdown https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/04/03/Canadian-Dollar-Price-Outlook-USD-CAD-Coils-Loonie-Digests-JS-US-to-Canadian-Dollar-Forecast.html https://t.co/4Yix4ZEXeH
  • President Trump says he is looking at infrastructure package, "will do it soon" Surely a key theme to watch in the week ahead for $SPX
S&P 500 Price Outlook: Coronavirus Panic Selling Erases Trump Rally

S&P 500 Price Outlook: Coronavirus Panic Selling Erases Trump Rally

2020-03-19 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

S&P 500 Index Technical Price Outlook: SPX500 Near-term Trade Levels

The S&P 500 Index has collapsed more than 30% off the February record highs amid the ongoing Coronavirus global pandemic with the sell-off nearly reversing the entire Trump inauguration rally. The decline is now approaching levels of interest for downtrend support and may offer a near-term reprieve in price. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the SPX500 technical price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this SPX500 trade setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Apr 06
( 12:04 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Weekly

S&P 500 Price Chart - SPX500 Weekly - S&P 500 Index Technical Forecast - Trade Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; S&P 500 Index on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last S&P 500 Price Outlook we noted that we were on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion as the index was approaching uptrend support. A rebound of more than 12% into the close of the week did not last with the index plummeting to fresh three-year lows. A descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2018 / 2020 highs may be in play here but its too early to tell. For now, watch the daily close with respect to the 61.8% parallel, currently around ~2370s.

Downside weekly support objectives eyed at the 2017 yearly open at 2239 and the lower parallel / 2194- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Weekly resistance now stands back at the 2018 low-week close at 2486- a close above this threshold would be needed to alleviate further downside pressure near-term.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 120min

S&P 500 Price Chart - SPX500 120min - S&P 500 Index Technical Forecast - Trade Outlook

Notes: A closer look at S&P 500 price action shows the index trading within the confines of a near-term descending channel formation extending off the monthly highs. Note that he recent decline is marking momentum divergence into the lows with the immediate short-bias vulnerable heading into channel support / the 1.618% extension at 2250.

Initial resistance stands with the 2018 weekly close-low at 2412 backed by 2497-2521- look for a reaction there IF reached with a breach / close above needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway towards 2600. A break lower from here exposes subsequent support objectives at 2194, the 2016 August low at 2147 and 2114- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

Equities Forecast
Equities Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Get Your Free Equities Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The S&P 500 collapse is approaching levels of interest for possible support / exhaustion just lower. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on test of channel support with a breach / close above 2521 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place near-term. Keep in mind that Coronavirus headlines will contlines to drive sentiment here- stay nimble until we get further clarity in price.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

S&P 500 Trader Sentiment – SPX500 Price Chart

S&P 500 Trader Sentiment - SPX500 Price Chart - S&P 500 Index Technical Outlook - Trade Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long the index - the ratio stands at +1.34 (57.34% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Long positions are12.13% higher than yesterday and 0.21% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 14.30% lower than yesterday and 11.76% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests the S&P 500 may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes suggests us a stronger S&P 500-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
US 500 MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 9% -4% 0%
Weekly 12% 16% 14%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

---

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.