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Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Surges- Bulls Face First Test

Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Surges- Bulls Face First Test

2020-02-13 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Sterling Technical Price Outlook: GBP/USD Trade Levels

  • Sterling technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • GBP/USD surges off key support zone after failed attempt to break below 1.29
  • British Pound recovery targeting downtrend / Fibonacci resistance ~1.3080

The British Pound surged more than 1.1% against the US Dollar this week with Sterling poised to mark the fourth consecutive daily advance. The rally takes GBP/USD towards the first major hurdle at down-trend resistance just higher and we’re looking for a reaction. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Cable trade setup and more.

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Sterling Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Daily - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest Sterling Price Outlook we noted that the recent sell-off was approaching, “a critical support zone just below the January lows- the immediate focus is on a reaction off the 1.2900/20 support zone with the short-bias vulnerable while above.” Cable briefly registered a low at 1.2870 early in the week before reversing sharply higher with the advance taking GBP/USD back above the 1.2990pivot zone. The focus is on confluence resistance at 1.3080 with a breach / close above the upper parallel needed to shift the focus back to the topside. Daily support steady at 1.29 with a break lower exposing 1.2823.

Sterling Price Chart – GBP/USD 120min

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD 120min - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action shows GBP/USD continuing to trading within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation extending off the late-December / February highs. An embedded ascending channel formation keeps the near-term focus higher while above today’s lows. Note the resistance confluence around 1.3080 where the upper parallel converges on the 61.8% retracement of the monthly range – look for a reaction there IF reached with a topside breach needed to keep the long-bias viable targeting monthly open resistance at 1.3176. Ultimately, a break below weekly-open support at 1.2894 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.

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Bottom line: The Sterling recovery is approaching confluence downtrend resistance just higher and we’re looking for a reaction on a stretch towards 1.3080 for guidance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a test of parallel resistance with a breach / close above needed to keep the long-bias in play. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Sterling Trader Sentiment – GBP/USD Price Chart

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  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +1.85 (64.86% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 6.04% lower than yesterday and 1.19% lower from last week
  • Short positions are16.51% higher than yesterday and 4.83% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday & compared with last week – from a sentiment standpoint, the recent changes in positioning warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
GBP/USD MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -18% -5% -15%
Weekly 11% -27% -4%
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Key UK / US Data Releases

Key UK / US Data Releases - Sterling Event Risk - GBP/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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