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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Testing Resistance

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Testing Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD price breakout testing technical confluence resistance zone
  • Focus on close with respect to 1.3330/35 zone - constructive while above 1.3230

The Canadian Dollar plummeted more than 2.7% against the US Dollar since the January lows in USD/CAD with the recent price breakout now testing confluence resistance early in the week. We’re looking for a reaction in price up here with the broader long-bias vulnerable while below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts heading into the Fed. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie trade setup and more.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the USD/CAD was trading within an ascending formation extending off the January lows as price was testing confluence resistance at 1.3182/84. Our outlook remained, “constructive while within this formation with a breach needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.” A breakout into the close of January trade saw the price rally another 1% with USD/CAD now eyeing confluence resistance at 1.3330/36- a region defined by the September high-day close at and the 61.8% retracement of the May decline. The focus is on a reaction off this threshold with the immediate long-bias vulnerable while below.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action sees USD/CAD continuing to trade within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the January / February lows – a breach / close above 1.3330/36 is needed to keep the current advance viable with such a scenario targeting confluence resistance into the upper parallel at 1.3383/92- area of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Interim support rests with the median-line (currently ~1.3280s) backed by 1.3264 with near-term bullish invalidation at the January close / February open at 1.3231/36.

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Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing confluence resistance here and the immediate focus is on a the daily close with respect to 1.3182/84. From at trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion while below this threshold. That said- ultimately, the outlook remains constructive while within this formation with a breach needed to fuel the next leg higher in price. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at –4.94 (only 16.83% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are17.20% higher than yesterday and 23.65% lower from last week
  • Short positions are9.39% higher than yesterday and 53.55% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week- the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/CAD Bearish
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 14% -7% 6%
Weekly 9% 8% 9%
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Key US / Canada Data Releases

US / Canada Key Data Releases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar- Loonie Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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