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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Bulls Targeting Trend Extremes

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Bulls Targeting Trend Extremes

2020-02-06 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

The Canadian Dollar continued its march lower against the US Dollar with USD/CAD poised to mark a fifth consecutive weekly advance. The rally keeps price within a broad consolidation pattern with the advance now approaching the upper-bounds of a multi-year formation and leaves the immediate long-bias vulnerable heading into resistance levels just higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie trade setup and more.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD had rebounded off confluence support early in the year with, a close above 1.3140s needed to keep the focus higher in price. A gap higher into the Sunday-open the following week has fueled a rally of more than 1.2% with USD/CAD now testing the 50% retracement of the decline off the 2018/2019 high at 1.3308.

A critical resistance confluence is eyed just higher at 1.3370/92- a region defined by last year’s high-week close & the 61.8% retracement and converges on basic trendline resistance extending off the 2019 high. Looking for a reaction off one of these levels in the weeks ahead. Weekly open support rests at 1.3230 backed by 1.3184 with broader bullish invalidation at the 20149 low-week close 1.3058.

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Bottom line: The USD/CAD rally is testing initial resistance targets and we’re on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion near-term heading into yearly slope resistance just higher. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a test of these next two levels. Ultimately, we’re looking for a breakout of this broad consolidation structure which has continued to govern price for over a year – that said, price is now approaching the upper bounds of the formation. Keep in mind we get the release of both US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Canada Employment figures on Friday- stay nimble into the close of the week. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -4.90 (16.94% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are7.54% lower than yesterday and 36.99% lower from last week
  • Short positions are16.84% higher than yesterday and 76.17% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/CAD MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -22% -18% -19%
Weekly 4% -35% -28%
Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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