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Mexican Peso Price Outlook: USD/MXN in Consolidation- Breakout Levels

Mexican Peso Price Outlook: USD/MXN in Consolidation- Breakout Levels

2020-02-03 20:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Mexican Peso Technical Price Outlook: USD/MXN Trade Levels

  • Mexican Peso updated technical trade levels – Weekly & Daily Charts
  • USD/MXN in consolidation just above downtrend slope support
  • Immediate focus is on a breakout of 18.6600–19.0266 range

The Mexican Peso has been in a consolidation range vs the US Dollar since the start of the yearly with USD/MXN trading just below the yearly open into the start of February trade. The entire 2020 range consists of just 2% and we’re looking for a breakout of this monthly long contraction in price for guidance on our medium-term directional bias. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/MXN price charts heading into the monthly open. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown the setupswe’re tracking this week.

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Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Weekly

Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Weekly - US Dollar vs Mexican Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/MXN on Tradingview

Technical Outlook:The Mexican Peso has been trading within the confines of a broad descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2018 & 2019 highs with USD/MXN rebounding off the median-line early in the year. Price has continued to straddle the 61.8% retracement at 18.7915 since the start of the year with our focus on a breakout of the January range.

Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Daily

Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Daily - US Dollar vs Mexican Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Mexican Peso price action sees USD/MXN continuing to contract into the apex of a consolidation formation just above median-line support. Yearly open resistance stands at 18.8515 backed closely by the January trendline. Ultimately a breach above the 100% extension / yearly opening-range high at 19.0266 would be needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway with such a scenario targeting the highlighted trendline confluence near ~19.1500. Look for initial support at the low-day close at 18.6600 with a close below the median-line exposing subsequent objectives at the August 2018 low at 18.4047 and critical support at 18.0098& 18.1266.

USD Forecast
USD Forecast
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Bottom line: The Mexican Peso continues to trade within a broad consolidation formation since the start of the year and we’re looking for a reaction here- from a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the January range for guidance with the broader risk weighted to the downside while below the 2019 trendline. I’ll publish an updated Peso Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/MXN technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

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Key US / Mexican Data Relases - USD/MXN Economic Calendar - Peso Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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