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Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Breakdown Targets– Trade Levels

Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Breakdown Targets– Trade Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Japanese Yen rallied more than 1.7% against the US Dollar from the December highs in USD/JPY with price reversing off a critical resistance barrier we’ve been tracking for months now. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly price chart heading into the start of January trade. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold price setup and more.

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Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY Weekly - US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Trade Outlook - technical forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Notes: In our last Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook we noted that USD/JPY was, “testing critical yearly open resistance at 109.68 and we’re looking for a reaction.” Price held below this key threshold for six-consecutive weeks before breaking up-channel support last week with the pullback now testing the first major support target at 107.71/84- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the late-August advance and the 2017 low- week close.

The immediate decline is vulnerable while above this threshold with a break / close below needed to mark resumption targeting he 61.8% retracement / 2019 low-week close at 106.25/46. Resistance steady at 109.36/68 with a breach there exposing pitchfork resistance extending off the 2017 highs, currently around ~110.30s.

JPY Forecast
JPY Forecast
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Bottom line: The USD/JPY breakdown is testing the first major support zone into the start of the year at 107.71/84- look for a reaction here early in the month with the broader risk lower sub-109.36 heading into January trade. From a trading standpoint, looking for topside exhaustion on a recovery to offer more favorable entries for a move lower. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment - USD/JPY Price Chart - US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at +1.20 (54.57% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are12.42% higher than yesterday and 37.63% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 31.80% higher than yesterday and 5.09% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/JPY Bearish
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 5% -8% -2%
Weekly 20% 1% 9%
Learn how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning impact trend
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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