We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.35% US 500: 0.35% Germany 30: 0.31% France 40: 0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/VHUHZF1Cyz
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JAN), Actual: 39.1 Expected: 39.5 Previous: 39.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-29
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JAN) due at 05:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 39.5 Previous: 39.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-29
  • The #Euro has broken four-month support guiding a recovery against the US Dollar to suggest that the long-term downtrend has been re-engaged. Get your EUR/USD market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/FHiGQZ6zvV https://t.co/0ulmLWaZxK
  • The US Dollar may be on the verge of upside breakouts against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit after Wuhan virus fears boosted $USDSGD and $USDMYR #SGD #USD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/01/29/Dollar-Technical-Outlook-May-Turn-Bullish-as-USDSGD-USDMYR-Rise.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/1M1GTIo79r
  • $AUDJPY technical positioning hints prices may be on cusp of turning lower after a late-2019 bounce, recoupling with a dovish RBA policy outlook. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/z84Y0V0ZtH https://t.co/e30wIlAkbF
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.45% Gold: -0.20% Silver: -0.42% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/SP0lbABAbq
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.13% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.12% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/3lgUbBP3XF
  • #EURGBP Outlook Bullish Ahead of #Brexit, BoE Rate Decision - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-gbp/2020/01/29/EURGBP-Outlook-Bullish-Ahead-of-Brexit-BoE-Rate-Decision.html
  • My trading video for today: "Dow, Risk Attempt Recovery Amid Competing Theme: #Coronavirus, #Fed and #Earnings' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/01/29/Dow-Risk-Attempt-Recovery-Amid-Competing-Theme-Coronavirus-Fed-and-Earnings.html?ref-author=Kicklighter?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/VVmYBjVy63
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Plummets into Support– Loonie Levels

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Plummets into Support– Loonie Levels

2020-01-02 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

The Canadian Dollar rallied more than 3% against the US Dollar since the September extremes with USD/CAD plummeting into initial downtrend support targets into the open of the month / year. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts heading the start of January trade.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted a well-defined range in USD/CAD just above the November lows while noting a, “break below 1.3086 needed to fuel the next lower in price.” A close just below this threshold on Friday saw the decline accelerate into end of the month / year with price now responding to confluence downtrend support at 1.2971 – a region defined by the 100% extension of the 2019 decline and the 78.6% retracement of the October 2018 advance. Note that the 25% parallel of the broader descending pitchfork formation also converges on this threshold into the start of the month.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min - Loonie Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines of an embedded near-term descending channel formation extending off the December highs with the lower parallel further highlighting support at the 1.2971 Fibonacci confluence. Initial resistance now 1.3050 backed by the October low-day close at 1.3086 – both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Bearish invalidation now lowered to 1.3134. A break / close lower from here exposes subsequent support objectives at 1.2916, 1.2884 and the 50% retracement at 1.2861 – look for a larger reaction there.

Top Trading Lessons
Top Trading Lessons
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Why does the average trader lose? Trading Mistakes to Avoid
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The USD/CAD sell-off is testing the first major support target and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the immediate decline may be vulnerable while above the 1.2971 confluence zone heading into the closed of the week. From a trading standpoint, look for exhaustion ahead of / recoveries to be capped by the 1.31-handle IF price is indeed heading lower with a close below today’s lows needed to keep the immediate short-bias viable. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +2.22 (68.92% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are9.86% higher than yesterday and 39.65% higher from last week
  • Short positions are24.14% higher than yesterday and 24.74% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall (Canadian Dollar strength). Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/CAD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -8% 2% -2%
Weekly -38% 24% -9%
Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Key US / Canada Data Releases

US / Canada Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Trade Outlook

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.