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Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie at Key Support – Trade Levels

Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie at Key Support – Trade Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Australian Dollar is marginally weaker against the US Dollar this week with Aussie setting up a well-defined weekly opening-rang just above critical support and just below monthly trendline resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD price charts heading into the close of November trade. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that Aussie had, “responded to long-term downtrend support at 6768/70. From at trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on this near-term recovery – look for a reaction / pivot on a stretch towards slope resistance for guidance.” Our focus was on reaction up at 6830- price registered a high at 6835 in the following days before reversing sharply with Aussie carving out the weekly opening-range just above the 6770-support zone.

A break / close below this threshold would expose a larger constitute a break of the monthly opening-range- such a scenario would expose a larger decline towards the median-line / January low at 6745- we’ll reassess the decline there IF reached. Daily resistance stands at 6810 with a close above 6830 needed to turn the tide on this decline.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 120min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 120min - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD continuing to trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending of the October highs. The immediate focus is on a break of the weekly opening-range here just above key support. Weekly open resistance stands at 6790 with a breach above 6810 needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway targeting 6830 and 6850. A downside break from here exposes the lower parallel / 6745- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Weakness beyond there would likely risk accelerated losses targeting the September open at 6724.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar sell-off has is testing key Fibonacci support / November opening-range lows heading into the close of the month and a shortened holiday week- use caution here. From at trading standpoint, we’re on the lookout for an exhaustion low with a breach above the median-line needed to fuel a larger recovery in Aussie. Review my latest Aussie Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.98 (66.43% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 6.12% higher than yesterday and 16.75% higher from last week
  • Short positions are5.01% lower than yesterday and 11.82% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Key Australia / US Data Releases

Australia / US Economic Calendar - AUD/USD Key Data Releases - Aussie Trade Outlook

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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