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Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Surges to Yearly Open Resistance

Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Surges to Yearly Open Resistance

2019-11-08 17:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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The Japanese Yen is down more than 4.8% against the US Dollar since the August yearly extremes with USD/JPY rallying into a critical resistance threshold at fresh five-month highs this week- we’re looking for a reaction up here. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

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Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY Weekly - Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Notes: USD/JPY is testing a critical resistance barrier at 109.36/68 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range, the March low / July high, and the objective yearly open. The broader August recovery is vulnerable while below this threshold near-term and the focus is on a reaction off this mark.

Initial support rests with the August trendline backed by the 2017 low-week close at 107.84. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the yearly low-week reversal close at 106.25- a close below this level would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. A topside breach / close above 109.68 keep the focus on the next major resistance zone at 110.70-111.05 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The USD/JPY rally is now testing key resistance at multi-month highs and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable near-term while below the yearly open. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. High risk for topside exhaustion here – be on the lookout for support into the August trendline IF price is indeed heading higher. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

Please add a description for the image.
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/JPY - the ratio stands at -1.11 (47.37% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are11.76% higher than yesterday and 6.93% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 5.74% higher than yesterday and 23.68% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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