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Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Breakout Stalls-GBP/USD Levels

Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Breakout Stalls-GBP/USD Levels

Michael Boutros,
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Sterling is on the defensive this week with the British Pound down more-than 0.6% against the US Dollar ahead of tomorrow’s BoE rate decision. Price has continued to contract since the decline off the October highs and while the outlook remains broadly constructive, the risk remains for a deeper correction If this range resolves lower. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

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Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Sterling Weekly Price Outlook we noted that GBP/USD was, “testing BIG downtrend resistance here and the focus is on a breach of this key technical resistance confluence (1.2690).” Cable ripped higher the following week with price registering a high at 1.3013 into the close of October trade. The British Pound is down more-than 1.2% off these highs and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside, the threat remains for further losses near-term.

Yearly open support rests at 1.2754 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 2018 low-week close / September swing high at 1.2582- look for bigger reaction on a drop into this region IF reached. The next big topside resistance objectives remain at the 78.6% retracement of the yearly range at 1.3077 backed by 1.3168-1.3203.

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Bottom line: The Sterling breakout may be losing some steam here and while the outlook remains constructive, the near-term advance remains vulnerable here into the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision tomorrow. From a trading standpoint, look for downside exhaustion on a stretch lower – possible entries on a test of the yearly open or lower while above 1.2582.I’ll publish an updated Sterling Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart

Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +1.10 (52.34% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are0.44% higher than yesterday and 5.39% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 3.20% lower than yesterday and 7.78% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in GBP/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Key UK / US Data Releases

UK / US Economic Calendar - GBP/USD Key Data Releases

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.