Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Slumps into Range Support– Trade Levels

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Slumps into Range Support– Trade Levels

Michael Boutros,
What's on this page

Euro has plummeted against the US Dollar since the start of the month with price falling to multi-week range-lows today in New York trade. While the broader focus is still weighted to the topside, the near-term outlook remains vulnerable after reversing off longer-term slope resistance into the November open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest EuroWeekly Price Outlook we noted that the EUR/USD, “breakout is testing the first resistance hurdle here and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable heading into next week.” Price posted an outside-day reversal off the monthly highs on Monday with the Euro plummeting nearly 1% early in the week. The decline takes price into initial support hurdles here at 1.1065 where the 25% line converges on the 38.2% retracement of the October advance.

A break lower from here exposes more significant support at the lower parallel near ~1.1030- a break / close below this threshold would be needed to shift the broader focus lower with such a scenario targeting 1.0994. Monthly open resistance stands at 1.1151 with 1.1187-1.1208 still critical.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the highs. Initial resistance stands at 1.1123 backed by near-term bearish invalidation at the upper parallel around ~1.1150/60. A break below near-term support here at 1.1065 keeps the focus on a the highlighted trendline confluence near ~1.1020- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: Euro remains vulnerable into the open of the month of the back of this reversal but ultimately, we’re looking for a larger setback to offer more favorable entries. From at trading standpoint, look for failure ahead of 1.1123 IF price is still heading lower – we’ll be tracking for downside exhaustion / long-entries on a stretch lower towards uptrend support.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Fount dations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.04 (50.88% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 14.61% higher than yesterday and 5.65% higher from last week
  • Short positions are7.26% lower than yesterday and 6.74% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes does give us a EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias, from a sentiment standpoint – but it’s a weak one.

See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Key Euro / US Data Releases

Euro / US Economic Calendar - EUR/USD Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.