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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Slumps into Range Support– Trade Levels

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Slumps into Range Support– Trade Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro has plummeted against the US Dollar since the start of the month with price falling to multi-week range-lows today in New York trade. While the broader focus is still weighted to the topside, the near-term outlook remains vulnerable after reversing off longer-term slope resistance into the November open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest EuroWeekly Price Outlook we noted that the EUR/USD, “breakout is testing the first resistance hurdle here and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable heading into next week.” Price posted an outside-day reversal off the monthly highs on Monday with the Euro plummeting nearly 1% early in the week. The decline takes price into initial support hurdles here at 1.1065 where the 25% line converges on the 38.2% retracement of the October advance.

A break lower from here exposes more significant support at the lower parallel near ~1.1030- a break / close below this threshold would be needed to shift the broader focus lower with such a scenario targeting 1.0994. Monthly open resistance stands at 1.1151 with 1.1187-1.1208 still critical.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the highs. Initial resistance stands at 1.1123 backed by near-term bearish invalidation at the upper parallel around ~1.1150/60. A break below near-term support here at 1.1065 keeps the focus on a the highlighted trendline confluence near ~1.1020- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

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Bottom line: Euro remains vulnerable into the open of the month of the back of this reversal but ultimately, we’re looking for a larger setback to offer more favorable entries. From at trading standpoint, look for failure ahead of 1.1123 IF price is still heading lower – we’ll be tracking for downside exhaustion / long-entries on a stretch lower towards uptrend support.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Fount dations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.04 (50.88% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 14.61% higher than yesterday and 5.65% higher from last week
  • Short positions are7.26% lower than yesterday and 6.74% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes does give us a EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias, from a sentiment standpoint – but it’s a weak one.

See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Key Euro / US Data Releases

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.