Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Creeps Towards Capitulation

2019-09-25 15:30:00

Michael Boutros, Strategist

USD/CAD ranging just below downtrend resistance– breakout targets well-defined
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The Canadian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar since the start of the week with price carving the weekly opening-range just below downtrend resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro price setup and more.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted to, “look for possible exhaustion on a stretch towards 1.3284/88 IF reached,” as USD/CAD was approaching downslope resistance. Price registered a high just above the figure with the advance unable to mark a daily close above.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: A closer low at Loonie price action sees USD/CAD continuing to trade within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the August / September highs with this week’s opening-range taking shape just below. Resistance stands at the upper parallel around the 1.33-handle with a breach / close above the monthly open at 1.3314 needed to validate a breakout targeting the high-day close at 1.3336 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.3355.

Support remains at 1.3235/36 backed closely by 1.3222- a break there would be needed to mark resumption targeting the 61.8% retracement of the September advance at the 1.32-handle – look for a bigger reaction thee IF reached.

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Bottom line: Loonie has carved a well-defined weekly opening-range just below downslope resistance yet again with the recent recovery at risk while below the monthly open. From a trading standpoint, a spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion into the upper parallel with a break below 1.3222 needed to fuel the next leg lower. Expect acceleration IF price can break higher here with such a scenario exposing longer-term downtrend resistance near 1.3355. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -2.07 (32.6% of traders are long) – bullish reading
Traders have remained net-short since September 12th; price has moved 0.4% higher since then
Long positions are 8.6% lower than yesterday and unchanged from last week
Short positions are11.9% higher than yesterday and 24.2% higher from last week
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.