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Euro Price Chart: A Low in EUR/USD? Technical Trade Outlook

Euro Price Chart: A Low in EUR/USD? Technical Trade Outlook

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro reversed sharply off down-trend support against the US Dollar this week with the move suggesting a more prominent recovery may be underway. Here These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie price setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: Euro is up more than 1.2% off fresh yearly lows this week after rebounding just pips ahead of the highlighted trendline confluence near 1.0910 (low registered at 1.0925). The last two tests of this slope as support occurred on November 2017 and August 2018; both instances saw advances of 3.5% or more. That said, we’re looking for evidence that a more significant low is in place as price approaching yearly trend resistance.

Initial topside hurdles stand at the May lows at 1.1106 backed closely by the June trendline- a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway targeting the 61.8% retracement at 1.1187. Look for support ahead of 1.1027 with a break below the weekly / September open at 1.0990 needed to put the bears back in control- a break / close below this threshold would risk a drop towards critical support at 1.0814/53.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Euro is poised to mark a massive reversal candle off slope support – IF EUR/USD has indeed turned the corner, look for exhaustion pullbacks to be limited to the monthly open. From a trading standpoint, a good place to raise protective stops / reduce long exposure on a test of 1.11 – we’ll be looking for entries on pullbacks while above 1.0990. Keep in mind market turns can have numerous false starts and we’ll want to see prices stabilize here for this to work- watch the weekly close here. I’ll publish an updated EUR/USD Trade Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term price action.

Euro Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD- the ratio stands at +1.94 (66.0% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since July 1st; price has moved 2.6% lower since then
  • Long positions are17.0% lower than yesterday and 9.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are18.9% higher than yesterday and 1.6% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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