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Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Surges as China Raises the Stakes

Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Surges as China Raises the Stakes

2019-08-23 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Gold prices are trading into a critical long-term resistance threshold with news of retaliatory tariffs from China sparking a massive surge in prices. The advance is once again looking to challenge this key pivot zone and a breach / close above is needed to keep the long-bias viable. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold price setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes:In my last Gold Price Weekly Outlook we noted that XAU/USD was, “testing long-term uptrend resistance up here and the advance remains vulnerable while below.” The region in focus remains 1522/26 where the December 2011 & 2012 lows converges on a pair of uptrend resistance slopes. Gold has held below this threshold all week with the prices continuing to consolidate just below – look for the test / break.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Initial daily support rests at with the 38.2% retracement of t he August range at 1483 with more significant support eyed at the highlighted confluence zone around 1467- are of interest of possible downside exhaustion / long-entries IF reached. Broader bullish invalidation now raises to 1451. A topside breach would likely fuel an accelerated rally in gold prices, exposing subsequent topside resistance objectives at 1557 and the 61.8% retracement of the decline of the record highs at 1585- look for a bigger reaction there.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:Gold prices are in consolidation just below a major pivot zone and we’re looking for the breach to mark resumption of the broader uptrend- that said, the advance remains vulnerable near-term while below. From a trading standpoint, we’ll favor fading weakness into either a larger correction towards trend support OR a topside breach & retest of the 1522/26 zone for re-entry. Watch the weekly close here. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

Gold Trader Sentiment (XAU/USD)

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +1.96 (66.2% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 6.2% higher than yesterday and 20.4% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 2.1% lower than yesterday and 1.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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