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S&P 500 Price Targets: SPX Consolidation Levels – Technical Trade Outlook

S&P 500 Price Targets: SPX Consolidation Levels – Technical Trade Outlook

2019-08-20 20:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

SPX has been trading within a narrowing range since the multi-month lows registered in early August with the recent advance failing at the upper bounds of this pattern today. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the SPX500 charts this week. Review this my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold trade setup and more.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Daily

S&P 500 Price Chart - SPX500 Daily - US500 Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; SPX500 on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: The S&P 500 remains in consolidation after probing fresh two-month lows early in August trade. Initial daily resistance stands at 2930- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of late-July decline and the 2018 high-day close. The index is trading within a broad ascending pitchfork formation extending off the March low with the 25% parallel catching the lows late-last week.

Price remains in a broad consolidation pattern since the monthly low and we’re looking for the break for guidance. A topside breach exposes the median-line / May high around ~2960 with a close above monthly open resistance at 2970 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Daily support steady at 2822 with broader bullish invalidation at the lower parallel, currently ~2800.

S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 120min

S&P 500 Price Targets: SPX Consolidation Levels – Technical Trade Outlook

Notes: A closer look at SPX500 price action highlights the recent consolidation pattern with the index turning at confluence resistance at 1229/30. Initial support rests with the 23.6% retracementat 2904 – a break there would expose 2888 and a key zone at 2861/68- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

A topside breach would still have to deal with the July trendline (currently ~2940s) with a close above exposing the May high at 2959 and the 100% ext of the monthly advance at 2988- area of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: The S&P 500 is at the upper bounds of a broad consolidation pattern and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable near-term while below the 8/13 swing highs. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Only targeting levels within this range for now- I’d be on the lookout for possible exhaustion on a test higher / false breakout before turning- keep in mind the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is on tap this week.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

S&P 500 Trader Sentiment

S&P 500 Trader Senitment - SPX500 Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short SPX500- the ratio stands at -2.4 (29.4% of traders are long) – bullishreading
  • Long positions are4.1% lower than yesterday and 3.6% higher from last week
  • Short positions are11.8% higher than yesterday and 0.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests SPX500 prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger SPX500-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


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