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Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Snaps Four Week Losing Streak

Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Snaps Four Week Losing Streak

2019-08-16 16:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Sterling prices fell to lows not seen since January of 2017 early in the week before mounting a nearly 1% advance – the move offers a reprieve to the British Pound which has fallen nearly 10% off the yearly highs. But is this just a near-term relief rally, or the start of something bigger? These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold price setup and more.

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Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly

Sterling Price Chart - British Pound vs US Dollar Weekly - GBP/USD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last GBP/USD PriceOutlook we noted that Sterling was approaching a critical support confluence at, “1.2374-1.2433 – a region defined by the 2016 post-Brexit low-week close and the 2017 low-week close... A break / weekly close below would expose subsequent support objectives at the 61.8% extension at 1.2185.” Price plummeted through this target last week before briefly registering a low at 1.2013 early in the week. Sterling is responding to slope support on numerous timeframes here with price now poised to snap a four-week losing streak.

Initial weekly resistance stands with the median-line (currently ~1.23) with key resistance / near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to the 1.2374-1.2433 pivot zone. A break lower from here exposes the post-Brexit lows in GBP/USD at 1.1950; look for a reaction there IF reached – any lower risks a drop towards the lower parallels sub-1.17.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Sterling is testing down-trend support here and leaves the immediate short-bias vulnerable into the start of next week. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. Look for possible downside exhaustion ahead of 1.2080 IF price is going to mount some sort of counter-offensive here. Ultimately a larger recovery may offer more favorable entries closer to trend resistance. I’ll publish an updated GBP/USD Price Outlook once we get further clarity on near-term GBP/USD technical levels.

Sterling Trader Sentiment (GBP/USD)

Sterling Trader Sentiment - British Pound vs US Dollar Price Chart - GBP/USD Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +3.13 (75.8% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since May 6th; price has moved 6.4% lower since then
  • Long positions are 7.7% lower than yesterday and 5.7% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 5.4% higher than yesterday and 0.1% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Sterling - GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in GBP/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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