We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.70%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 75.78%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dCUxr4X5Bi
  • RT @C_Barraud: 🇨🇳 #China | #PBoC pumped 100 billion yuan (about 14.58 billion U.S. dollars) into the financial system via reverse repos on…
  • RT @DeItaOne: MNUCHIN: COMING BUDGET WILL HAVE A NEW MIDDLE CLASS TAX CUT
  • RT @DeItaOne: FRANCE'S FINANCE MINISTER LE MAIRE SAYS TALKS WITH U.S. ON DIGITAL TAX REMAIN DIFFICULT, GOAL REMAINS MINIMUM TAXATION
  • RT @VPatelFX: UK jobs report shows big gain in employment (+208k). Buoyant hiring activity comes along with higher headline wage growth at…
  • RT @LiveSquawk: - German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan): 26.7 (est 15, prev 10.7) - German ZEW Survey Expectations (Jan): 25.6 (prev 11.2) -…
  • RT @C_Barraud: 🇫🇷 🇺🇸 #FRANCE HAS OFFERED TO SUSPEND DOWN-PAYMENTS ON DIGITAL SERVICES TAX FOR 2020 FISCAL YEAR AS IT SEEKS TO RESOLVE DISPU…
  • RT @C_Barraud: 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #TRUMP: PHASE 2 TALKS STARTING SHORTLY - BBG *TRUMP: MOST OF #CHINA TARIFFS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN PHASE 2
  • GBPUSD boosted by strong UK labour data +0.36% @1.3055. Short-term trend resistance and 20- and 50-dmas now in play ahead of Friday's UK PMIs. #gbp #sterling @DailyFX https://t.co/fjl8qL0Ply
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.34% Silver: -0.56% Oil - US Crude: -1.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/HE0nlqx7EA
Oil Price Outlook: Crude Rally Halted at Resistance– WTI Weekly Chart

Oil Price Outlook: Crude Rally Halted at Resistance– WTI Weekly Chart

2019-07-15 18:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Oil prices rallied more than 19% off the June lows before failing at a key resistance last week and leaves the recent advance in a precarious position heading into the start of the week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the crude oil weekly price chart (WTI). Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this oil price setup and more.

New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Crude Oil Beginners Guide

Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly

Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly Technical Forecast

Notes: In my last Oil PriceOutlook we noted that the crude rally was, “approaching a critical resistance pivot we’ve been tracking for months now at 60.06/45 and we’re looking for a reaction here.” Oil prices failed to mark a daily close above this threshold and the attempted breach above the monthly opening-range leaves the immediate rally vulnerable while below this key zone.

Monthly open support rests at 58.15 backed by confluence support at the 50% retracement of the June advance at 55.75. Ultimately a break / close below 54.53 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. A topside breach above 60.47 would keep the focus on the upper parallel / yearly high-week close at 62.83 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Ultimately a weekly close above 63.68 would be needed to suggest a more significant advance is underway.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The immediate oil price advance is vulnerable while below confluence resistance at 60.06/47. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion to give way to a larger pullback in crude. I’ll publish an updated Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity on near-term price action. Review my Top 2019 Trading Opportunities for a look at the longer-term look at the Oil Outlook.

Oil Trader Sentiment (WTI)

Oil Trader Sentiment - Crude Price Chart - WTI Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +1.12 (52.8% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 5.0% higher than yesterday and 9.1% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 7.5% lower than yesterday and 10.0% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oilprices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Crude Oil-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Crude retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.