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Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Eyes Yearly Open into Q3

Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Eyes Yearly Open into Q3

2019-06-27 16:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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The Euro is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar since the start of the week with price holding just below yearly Fibonacci resistance into the close of the month / quarter. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro setup and more.

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EUR/USD Price Chart – Euro Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Technical Outlook

Notes: In my last EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook our ‘bottom line’ noted that, “Euro held long-term slope support for over two months with the breach above channel resistance this week shifting the focus back to the long-side as we head deeper into June trade.” The rally extended into initial weekly resistance targets this week at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1393 with more significant resistance is eyed just higher at the 2019 open at 1.1445- risk for near-term exhaustion heading into these levels. Critical support remains at 1.1187 with a break / close below 1.1107 needed to suggest a larger breakdown is underway.

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Bottom line: The Euro breakout is testing initial resistance targets here around 1.14 and while the broader focus remains higher, the advance is vulnerable near-term heading into the yearly open- Watch the weekly / monthly close tomorrow. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for topside exhaustion here if price fails to close above- ultimately, we’ll favor fading weakness while above 1.1270 targeting a test of 1.1445.Review my latest EUR/USD Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term Loonie trading levels.

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EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.5 (40.1% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Traders have remained net-short since June 20th; price has moved 0.6% higher since then
  • Long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 9.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and 39.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Key Euro / US Data Releases

Euro / US Economic Calendar - EUR/USD Key Data Releases

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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