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Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Eyes Yearly Open into Q3

Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Eyes Yearly Open into Q3

Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Euro is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar since the start of the week with price holding just below yearly Fibonacci resistance into the close of the month / quarter. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro setup and more.

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EUR/USD Price Chart – Euro Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Technical Outlook

Notes: In my last EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook our ‘bottom line’ noted that, “Euro held long-term slope support for over two months with the breach above channel resistance this week shifting the focus back to the long-side as we head deeper into June trade.” The rally extended into initial weekly resistance targets this week at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1393 with more significant resistance is eyed just higher at the 2019 open at 1.1445- risk for near-term exhaustion heading into these levels. Critical support remains at 1.1187 with a break / close below 1.1107 needed to suggest a larger breakdown is underway.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The Euro breakout is testing initial resistance targets here around 1.14 and while the broader focus remains higher, the advance is vulnerable near-term heading into the yearly open- Watch the weekly / monthly close tomorrow. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for topside exhaustion here if price fails to close above- ultimately, we’ll favor fading weakness while above 1.1270 targeting a test of 1.1445.Review my latest EUR/USD Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term Loonie trading levels.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.5 (40.1% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Traders have remained net-short since June 20th; price has moved 0.6% higher since then
  • Long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 9.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and 39.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Key Euro / US Data Releases

Euro / US Economic Calendar - EUR/USD Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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