We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @next_china: U.S., China chief trade negotiators spoke by phone on Saturday, Xinhua reports https://t.co/dMQtd0g4jY
  • The $AUDUSD and $EURUSD downtrend may prolong as traders counterintuitively buy into their descent. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD uptrend may accelerate on rising net-short bets. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/dlzJ31kf3f https://t.co/xp8P9MmCgb
  • As we head into next week, Cable is continuing to digest the massive leg higher last month, which at some point soon could mean another surge. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/LJ42YhDe3X https://t.co/5hGwhGBpLB
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/urMnUCq4fn
  • RT @markets: White-hot pot stocks have flamed out in spectacular fashion https://t.co/3GsVsRyZaZ
  • What is the best time to trade #forex? Find out: https://t.co/M9R46r5ewa #tradingstyle https://t.co/gJ1QDrox67
  • #Gold prices may be given a tailwind from the FOMC minutes and escalating trade war risks if they fuel demand for anti-fiat assets amid expectations of additional Fed easing. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/OJ7WUY9W7E $gld https://t.co/kBp3opzptm
  • Why should you set trading goals? How can it help regardless of what your #tradingstyle is? Find out: https://t.co/AYdD7ODlv1 https://t.co/G0ftVurNNN
  • Manning the penalty box today...i hope there aren't too many visitors https://t.co/1y81Li7laL
  • Do you think your #tradingstyle is of a #FOMO trader? Find out how you can turn that to #JOMO? Find out: https://t.co/79Q4pYdVEd https://t.co/S82AOd5AeP
Kiwi Price Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Counter-Offensive, First Test

Kiwi Price Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Counter-Offensive, First Test

2019-06-18 17:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

The New Zealand Dollar is the worst performer year-to-date against the US Dollar with NZD/USD down more than 2.8%. A test of the May lows held last week with the recovery now eyeing near-term resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD charts heading in to tomorrow’s FOMC interest rate decision. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Kiwi Price Chart - NZD/USD Daily

NZD/USD Price Chart - Kiwi Daily - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar Outlook

Technical Outlook: In my latest New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Kiwi had, “broken the monthly opening-range lows with the decline taking price into weekly support – risk remains for possible downside exhaustion.” Price turned just pips from the 88.6% retracement of the 2018 advance at 6487 with the subsequent rebound now targeting monthly open resistance at 6528.

A breach / close above the median-line is needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway targeting the 61.8% retracement at 6558 and the April lows at 6580. Broader bearish invalidation stands with the upper parallel. A break lower from here would mark resumption of the March downtrend targeting the 2018 low-day close at 6455 & the 2018 low at 6424.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Kiwi Price Chart - NZD/USD 120min

NZD/USD Price Chart - Kiwi 120min - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar Outlook

Notes: A closer look at Kiwi price action shows NZD/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the June highs with the 75% line further highlighting near-term resistance at 6528/34 – look for a reaction there. A topside breach keeps the focus on the upper parallel / 6558 – area of interest for near-term price exhaustion. Failure to break this zone would shift the focus back towards the

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: The Kiwi recovery is now approaching initial resistance targets at 6528/33 and ultimately a topside breach of this formation is needed suggest a more significant low is in place. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a move into this resistance zone - risk for near-term exhaustion but IF price is heading higher, losses should be limited to the weekly open. A break of the weekly opening-range lows would keep the focus on 6455.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

Kiwi Trader Sentiment - NZD/USD Positioning - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +4.02 (80.1% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since April 2nd; price has moved 5.3% lower since then
  • Long positions are 7.4% higher than yesterday and 32.0% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 32.1% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Kiwi prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant New Zealand / US Data Releases

New Zealand / US Data Releases - Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.