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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Stalls – Trade Levels to Know

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Stalls – Trade Levels to Know

2019-06-12 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Euro has rallied nearly 2% against the US Dollar with the move fueling a breakout of multi-month channel resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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EUR/USD Price Chart - Daily

EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Daily

Technical Outlook: In my latest Euro Price Outlook we noted that the, “immediate Euro price advance may be vulnerable while below 1.1317” Price is straddling this level now after breaking above January channel resistance last week and while the broader focus remains weighted to the topside, the possibility of near-term price exhaustion remains.

Initial daily support rests at 1.13 backed by near-term bullish invalidation at 1.1265- weakness beyond this threshold would expose a larger correction with broader key support steady at the yearly low-day close / 61.8% retracement at 1.1182/86. Topside resistance objectives remain at 1.1374 and the 61.8% retracement of the 2019 trading range at 1.1394.

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EUR/USD Price Chart - 120min

EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar 120min

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Euro trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the May lows with price trading just below the median-line since the start of the week. The outlook remains constructive while within this formation- the lower parallel comes in around 1.1270s. Ultimately a break below 1.1256/65 would be needed to validate a larger reversal in EUR/USD. Topside resistance objectives are eyed at 1.1374 and 1.1393- a breach there is needed to fuel the next leg higher with such a scenario targeting the 2019 yearly open at 1.1445 (look for a bigger reaction there IF reached).

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Bottom line: Euro broke above multi-month channel resistance last week and keeps the broader focus higher heading deeper into June trade. From at trading standpoint, we’re looking for a pullback here to offer more favorable long-entries while within this formation, ultimately targeting a topside breach. Review my last Euro Weekly Price Outlook for a longer-term technical picture on EUR/USD.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment - Euro Positioning - Euro vs US Dollar Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.31 (43.3% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 3.2% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 12.2% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Euro prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant Euro / US Data Releases

Relevant Euro / US Data - EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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