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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Eyes Breakout as Loonie Coils

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Eyes Breakout as Loonie Coils

2019-04-11 17:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

The Canadian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar for the week as price continues to narrow within the confines of the larger consolidation pattern we’ve been tracking. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts into the close of the week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Daily

Technical Outlook: In my latest USD/CADWeekly Technical Outlook we noted that price has continued to consolidate just below a critical resistance confluence at 1.3435/37a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2019 range and the 2017 yearly open. Note that the March trendline also converges on this zone and further highlights its technical significance.

Interim support rests with the March 19th trendline (currently ~1.33) with broader bullish invalidation eyed at 1.3234/48 – a break / close below this threshold would be needed to validate the turn targeting the 200DMA at 1.3195. A topside breach of the formation exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the march highs at 1.3467 backed by the 78.6% retracement at 1.3537.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

USD/CAD 120min Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar 120minute

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines of a near-term ascending pitchfork formation with the recent advance testing confluence resistance today at 1.3384/87 – where the weekly open, the weekly opening-range highs and the 61.8% retracement converge on the median-line. A topside breach above this pivot zone would once again target key resistance at 1.3435/37- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Initial support rests at 1.3360 backed by 1.3327 – an area of interest for possible price exhaustion.

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Bottom line: The Canadian Dollar largely remains within the confines of a broader consolidation pattern just below key resistance with the weekly opening-range still intact heading into Friday. From a trading standpoint, the near-term risk remains weighted to the long-side while above 1.3327 but ultimately, we’re looking for a break of the 1.3298-1.3437 range for guidance.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD- the ratio stands at -1.51 (39.9% of traders are long) – bullishreading
  • Long positions are14.4% lower than yesterday and 5.0% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 10.4% higher than yesterday and unchanged from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!


Relevant US / Canada Economic Data Releases

US / Canada Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.