We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.87%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.79%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/oMqXKRmxpn
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0847 S2: 1.0936 S1: 1.0969 R1: 1.1058 R2: 1.1115 R3: 1.1204 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • US Equities Update (Tuesday Close): $DJI +0.11% $SPX +0.25% $NDX +0.46% $RTY -0.38% $VIX -1.70%
  • #Brent: A break above $69.34 could push the price for a test of yesterday’s High at $71.03. Get your technical analysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/QE5zVInhPb #OOTT https://t.co/xQhpDP0UdB
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.08% France 40: 0.03% US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Q0YYr8lAED
  • There is a significant disparity in US equity performance ($DJIA, green) and 'rest of world' ($VEU, blue). The global measure ($ACWI, candle) though presents the most impressive technical picture https://t.co/yCsUxO1xnK
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUL) due at 20:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: $99.1b https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-17
  • The US Citi Economic Surprise Index rises to 26.1 after Industrial and Manufacturing production beat estimates $DXY https://t.co/lMQTVylxUh
  • RT @Amena__Bakr: Prince Abdelaziz is urging countries to “help themselves” by aiding aramco fight threats #OOTT
  • US Treasury Yields Update: 2-Year: 1.733% 3-Year: 1.680% 5-Year: 1.659% 7-Year: 1.744% 10-Year: 1.803% 30-Year: 2.269% $TNX
Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD- Break or Bend, Monthly Highs

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD- Break or Bend, Monthly Highs

2019-03-28 17:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

The Canadian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar this week with USD/CAD trading just below key resistance into the close of the month / quarter. We’re looking for a break of the weekly opening-range with the broader outlook still weighted to the topside. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Daily

Technical Outlook: In my latest USD/CAD Technical Outlook our bottom line noted that price had, “responded to confluence support and while the immediate threat is higher, the recovery remains vulnerable sub-1.3437. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure on a move towards Fibonacci resistance and be on the lookout for possible price exhaustion.” USD/CAD has continued to hold just below this key threshold with the long-bias still vulnerable while below.

Key confluence support rests at 1.3308/25 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the mid-March advance, the 100-day moving average and the 2018 pitchfork support. Weakness beyond this zone would exposes 1.3248 (bullish invalidation)- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Ultimately a topside breach / close above 1.3437 is needed to mark resumption targeting the upper parallel around ~1.3520.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

USD/CAD 120min Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar 12min minute

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Loonie trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off last week’s lows with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below the 1.3435/37 resistance barrier. Initial support rests with the median-line around 1.3385 backed by the 38.2% retracement at 1.3370- a break there would shift the focus towards subsequent support objectives at 1.3347 and 1.3325- both levels of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries. A topside breach targets the March high at 1.3467 backed by the upper parallel around ~1.3515.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line:The focus is on a reaction at this key resistance zone and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside, the advance remains vulnerable near-term. USD/CAD has set a well-defined weekly opening-range just below resistance- look for the break. From a trading standpoint we’ll favor fading weakness while within this formation targeting a topside breach. Keep in mind we’re heading into the close of the month / quarter with Canada GDP and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on tap tomorrow morning – stay nimble.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Price
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD- the ratio stands at -1.48 (40.3% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are0.6% lower than yesterday and unchanged from last week
  • Short positions are 8.5% higher than yesterday and 38.0% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant US / CanadaEconomic Data Releases

US / Canada Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.