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New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook: Kiwi 2019 Range Compression

New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook: Kiwi 2019 Range Compression

Michael Boutros, Strategist

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Kiwi has continued to consolidate against the US Dollar with the 2019 opening-range of nearly 3% still intact heading into the close of February trade. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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NZD/USD Weekly Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - New Zealand vs US Dollar Weekly

Notes: In last month’s NZD/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that Kiwi continues to trade within the confines of a broad January opening-range and while I do think the bigger move ultimately is higher, the threat remains for another test of the lows before resumption.” Since then, price has carved out an even clearer range between 6707-6941and the focus heading into the close of the month is on a break of this range.

A downside break / close below this range targets the 61.8% retracement of the October range at 6633 backed by the 2018 low-week close at 6506. Weekly resistance stands at 6931/41- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the 2018 range and the 200-week moving average. A rally surpassing this threshold is needed to fuel the next leg higher in price targeting critical resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement at 7050 and the 2018 open / pitchfork resistance at 7094-7100.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:The Kiwi range continues and the longer this holds, the bigger the break. From a trading standpoint, price is now coming off the range highs and until we clear 6707-6941 – the medium-term outlook remains neutral. That said, ultimately a topside breach and test of the upper parallels is favored.I’ll publish an updated NZD/USD Technical Outlook once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

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NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.02 (49.5% of traders are long) – neutralreading
  • Long positions are6.3% lower than yesterday and 6.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 7.5% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant NZD/USD Data Releases

New Zealand / US Economic Data Calendar - NZD/USD

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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