- Crude Oil price reversal testing near-term pivot support – risk for deeper pullback while below 53.80
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Crude oil prices are down nearly 3% since the start of the week and while the risk remains for further losses near-term, the broader picture remains constructive after last month's rebound. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the WTI charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.
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Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (WTI)
Technical Outlook: In my latest Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook, we warned that the recent, “price advance remains vulnerable near-term while below 55.21/53.” WTI registered a high at 54.30 before reversing last week with the decline now testing the 100% extension (two-equal legs) of the decline off the monthly high at 51.45. Note that the advance off the December low does look to be a five-wave affair and as such, a three-wave correction would bode well for the bulls. It’s make-or-break here near-term.
Crude Oil 120min Price Chart (WTI)
Notes: A closer look at price action shows oil breaking below a near-term price consolidation just below resistance at 53.80 (2017 yearly open) with the decline now testing confluence support at 51.45. A break below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario exposing subsequent objectives at 49.73 and pitchfork support / 50% retracement at 48.32(bullish invalidation)– both areas of interest for possible price exhaustion IF reached.Look for initial resistance at the high-day close at 52.97 with a breach above 53.80 needed to shift the focus back towards the topside targeting 55.00/53.
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Bottom line: Crude has turned from confluence resistance and a break below 51.45 would keep the focus on a larger correction towards near-term slope support. Ultimately, a larger pullback in price may offer more favorable long-entries lower down with the broader outlook weighted to the topside while above 48.32.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Crude Oil Trader Sentiment
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +2.61 (72.3% of traders are long) – bearishreading
- Traders have remained net-long since October 11th; price has moved 28.4% lower since then
- Long positions are12.3% higher than yesterday and 6.7% higher from last week
- Short positions are 15.6% lower than yesterday and 13.7% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Crude Oil-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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