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EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook: Euro Rally Targets Turn or Burn Level

EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook: Euro Rally Targets Turn or Burn Level

Michael Boutros, Strategist

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Euro broke above a multi-month consolidation range with the advance targeting key resistance just higher. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: In last month’s EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that the broader short-bias remained ‘vulnerable while above this region (1.13) heading into the close of the year.’ Euro registered a low at 1.1306 early in the month with the subsequent rally failing just ahead of key resistance this week. Note that RSI has not broken above 50 since the early-2018 breakdown – a close above would mark a change of behavior in the weekly momentum profile.

The levels remain unchanged heading deeper into January trade with critical resistance steady at 1.1586-1.1603 – a region defined by the March trendline, the 61.8% retracement and the September outside-weekly reversal close. ‘A breach / close above this threshold is needed to suggest that a more significant low is in place with such a scenario targeting subsequent topside objectives at 1.1727 and the median-line / 52-week moving average / September high at 1.1800/15.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The Euro advance is targeting critical downtrend resistance around the 1.16-handle (broader bearish invalidation). From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a stretch into this region with a close above needed to suggest that a larger turn is underway. The immediate advance looks a bit vulnerable here so look for price to stabilize above the monthly open at 1.1445 if this is going to work. I’ll publish an updated EUR/USD technical outlook once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

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EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.05 (+51.3% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 8.2% higher than yesterday and 1.1% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 23.5% lower than yesterday and 5.9% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning& recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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