News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Join @ZabelinDimitri 's #webinar at 10:30 PM ET/2:30 AM GMT to find out how geopolitical risk will affect the markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/hsULxMNOtM https://t.co/grKVmisZm2
  • “Risk off” sentiment swept Asia-Pacific markets at open as the US national security officials said that Iran and Russia have both obtained information about American voters’ registrations and are trying to influence the public about the election. https://t.co/mIqt2zl2cd
  • Next week, Thursday will offer up the US 3Q GDP, ECB rate decision and a run of FAANG earnings (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google) and BOJ rate decision
  • The British Pound may fall if EU and UK negotiators fail to reach a consensus as the December 31 deadline nears. The third presidential debate is on deck, how might markets react? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/kDSYzBDA3t https://t.co/Vebt5lNvym
  • “National security officials on Wednesday announced that Iran and Russia have obtained swaths of voter registration information that could support their efforts to interfere in the 2020 presidential election” - Politico
  • Market Snapshot #SP500 and #ASX200 futures sliding lower after the US government stated that Iran and Russia have been attempting to interfere in the #USPresidentialElections2020 The risk-sensitive $AUDUSD losing ground while the 'safe haven' $JPY and $USD gain ground https://t.co/M0FUCc2vjx
  • 🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (17/OCT) Actual: ¥419.8B Previous: ¥1946.5B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • FBI to make an announcement on a ‘major election security’ issue shortly - CNBC
  • US Director Of National Intelligence Radcliffe: Identified Russia, Iran Have Taken Action To Interfere With Election
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (17/OCT) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Previous: ¥1946.5B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Initial Targets for Post-NFP Reversal

USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Initial Targets for Post-NFP Reversal

2018-12-07 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

The US Dollar pared early-week gains today as weak NFPs / strong Canada jobs data fueled a reversal off key resistance in USD/CAD. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts heading into the close of the week.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

Please add a description for the image.

Technical Outlook: In my previous USD/CAD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that the immediate advance was vulnerable as price approached, “a key resistance zone at 1.3375-1.3435- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the 2016 decline, the June swing highs and the 2017 yearly open.”

USD/CAD registered a high at 1.3445 before reversing sharply with strong Canadian employment data today further accelerating the decline. Note that we’ve been marking ongoing momentum divergence and highlights the risk for deeper losses here near-term. Initial support rests with the October channel with a break below the monthly opening-range low at 1.3160 shifting the focus back towards the slope support confluence / 100-day moving average at 1.3083/90.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

USD/CAD 240min Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - 240min

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows the pair trading within the confines of the ascending slope series we’ve been tracking in USD/CAD since October and further highlights this week’s reversal off confluence resistance. Initial support now rests at with the lower parallel / 61.8 % retracement at 1.3269 – we’re looking for a reaction here – watch the weekly close.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading!

Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing upslope support here and IF broken, would keep the near-term short-bias in play targeting the monthly range lows and more significant slope support. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short exposure on a drop towards 1.3269 – If price is heading lower, rallies should be capped by the 1.3375/85 resistance zone. I’ll favor fading near-term rallies while below this threshold for now, targeting a move towards the 1.31- handle.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -3.39 (22.8% of traders are long) – bullishreading
  • Traders have remained net-short since October 9th; price has moved 3.9% higher since then
  • Long positions are12.8% lower than yesterday and 34.6% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 19.1% lower than yesterday and 12.7% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant USD/CAD Data Releases

USD/CAD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES