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Crude Oil Price Outlook: WTI Breakdown Testing Initial Support

Crude Oil Price Outlook: WTI Breakdown Testing Initial Support

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Crude prices have plummeted more than 13% from the yearly / monthly high with the decline now approaching the first major support hurdle. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the Crude Oil (USOil) charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free Guide on How to Trade Crude Oil

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

Crude Oil Price Chart - Daily

Technical Outlook: In our latest Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook, we noted expectations for a reaction as price was approaching multi-year uptrend support. Yesterday’s sell-off saw prices accelerate through this key zone with the decline taking out targets into the first major support hurdle at 65.27/82. This region is defined by the 88.6% retracement of the August advance, the June & August low-day reversal closes and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range. Initial resistance now stands with the 200-day moving average at 67.34/45 with bearish invalidation now lowered to 69.17.

Crude Oil 240 Price Chart

Crude Oil Price Chart - 240min

Notes: A closer look at price action shows crude trading within the confines of near-term descending channel formation with price rebounding off confluence support today at the 65.27/82 pivot zone. A break / close below this level keeps the focus lower with such a scenario targeting subsequent support objectives at 64.40 and the June low at 63.57.

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Bottom line: Crude prices are testing a key technical support pivot with the immediate decline at risk while above 65.27. Ultimately a recovery would offer more favorable short-entries closer to down-trend resistance. From a trading standpoint, we’re on the lookout for signs of near-term price exhaustion- a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-Long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +4.1 (70.4% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since October 11th; price has moved 7.7% lower since then
  • Long positions are9.6% higher than yesterday and 41.0% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 14.9% lower than yesterday and 35.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Crude oil-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Crude retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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